MarketWatch – Here’s why U.S. stocks might finally get a 10% correction this year That’s somewhat similar to last year, and about as run of the mill as it gets. Strategists’ forecasts usually cluster around the historic average return. Most analysts’ forecasts are either cookie cutter or sensationalistic — they either blend in or get shock-value… Continue reading Why Stocks May See A 10% Correction In 2018
Bloomberg Gadfly – Marcus Ashworth: MiFID? Please. The ECB Corporate Bond Party’s Still Going Amid all the hullabaloo over MiFID II, the European corporate bond market is still looking pretty healthy. And it’s likely to stay that way for much of the year, thanks to the European Central Bank. This week has seen 31.5 billion… Continue reading Corporate Borrowing in Europe
MarketWatch – Tax cuts mean stock market ‘almost as cheap’ as a year ago: David Tepper That’s billionaire hedge-fund investor David Tepper telling CNBC on Thursday that he finds it odd that anyone would argue the stock market is overpriced in the wake of the corporate tax-cut package signed into law by President Donald Trump last month. Tepper,… Continue reading David Tepper Talks Tax Cuts and Stocks
Bloomberg Business – Fed Aiming to Restrict Credit, Raising Eventual Recession Risk ‘Nearly all’ officials see interest rates rising above neutral Federal Reserve policy makers have abandoned the notion that they can bring the U.S. economy in for the perfect soft landing — when inflation settles at its target, growth throttles back smoothly to trend and… Continue reading Why The Fed Is Raising The Risk of a Recession
Bloomberg Business – Global Debt Hits Record $233 Trillion Global debt rose to a record $233 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, more than $16 trillion higher from end-2016, according to an analysis by the Institute of International Finance. Private non-financial sector debt hit all-time highs in Canada, France, Hong Kong, South Korea, Switzerland and Turkey. At the… Continue reading Global Debt hits $233 Trillion
Through the end of 2017, there is little evidence that the weather has adversely affected the economy.
La Niña conditions and tight inventories should keep heating oil well bid this winter.
Summary Emerging market currencies have produced stellar returns into year-end on the heels of improving economic growth. However such strong risk-adjusted returns have been followed by muted returns in the months ahead. We turn to an analysis of Google search trends within each country’s boundaries to identify value. Comment Emerging market currencies have been roaring… Continue reading EM Currencies are Hot, Hot, Hot!
Bloomberg – Inflation Risk May Shake Global Markets Investors devoted to the idea that inflation will stay subdued should be worried. Worldwide data have recently made clear that producer-price increases have picked up steam. That’s led bond buyers to begin wagering that consumer inflation could be soon to follow, with U.S. breakeven rates above 2… Continue reading Will We See Inflation In 2018?
The Financial Times – Bitcoin price is a distraction, says big technology investor The rollercoaster ride of the bitcoin price captivated many in the finance industry in 2017, but for Glenn Hutchins, one of the biggest establishment names to venture into the world of cryptocurrencies, this is just noise that distracts from the bigger developments… Continue reading Focus On The Blockchain, Not Bitcoin Prices
The Wall Street Journal – Taxes and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Fourth-Quarter Earnings Season Investors are betting on a string of solid earnings reports for the fourth quarter to justify last year’s powerful stock market rally. Unfortunately, the numbers will be horrible. Relax, investors will largely ignore what will be one of… Continue reading Tax Reform May Make Earnings Difficult To Forecast For The Next Few Quarters