Bloomberg – These Classic Charts Are Confounding Economists The new year in economics will be a tale of two curves that have mysteriously gone flat—the yield curve and the Phillips curve. Some economists argue that the uncurvy curves are sending a message that the U.S. economy needs more stimulus. The debate is likely to be… Continue reading A Tale Of Two Broken Curves
Bloomberg – Commodities Are on Their Longest Winning Streak in History Commodities are forging a record-setting run of gains that straddles the end of 2017 and the start of the new year as crude oil notches multiyear highs and investors bet that booming global manufacturing output will help to sustain rising demand for raw materials.… Continue reading Commodities Go Streaking
Bloomberg – Markets Are Less Stable Than They Seem Since 2009, as policy makers have sought to return the global economy to normal, “stability” has usually been their byword. Unfortunately, their actions have only created a false calm — a “stable instability,” to coin a paradoxical phrase. Although a repeat of the financial crisis has… Continue reading Beware Market “Stability”
As the first chart below shows, China still suffers from capital flight but it has slowed since late 2016. The reason for the capital flight is the wealthy in China are quietly trying to get their money out and away from the Chinese government (last detailed here). Now that flows out of China have been slowing,… Continue reading China’s “Hot Money” Capital Outflows Slow
The charts below show weekly ETF and mutual fund flows. In Newsclips tomorrow, we will have our detailed look at monthly flows.
The chart below looks at hedge fund performance since 2003.
Commodites rose 1.70% as a group in 2017. Industrial metals led the sub-groups, up 29%. Gold was up 13% in 2017. For additional commodity total returns, see the interactive chart below:
Led by the NASDAQ (up 30%), all major stock indices were up in 2017. Growth stocks beat value stocks in 2017, up 27% and 18%, respectively. On a normalized basis, the Stoxx Europe 600 and MSCI World index were up 7% and 20%, respectively, in 2017. Financials were up 20% while the energy… Continue reading Stock Total Returns In 2017
The Bloomberg Treasury Index was up 2.3% in 2017. The Bloomberg Long Treasury Index was up 8.5%. The Bloomberg High Yield Index was up 7.5% in 2017. Use the interactive chart below to view additional returns.
Long-end Treasuries seemingly have no pulse, enduring their tightest trading range in history.
Summary High yield has outperformed in the current and most recent Fed tightening cycle, but the 1994 and 1999 tightening campaigns saw leveraged loans perform better. In order for leveraged loans to have another day in the sun in 2018, we will need to see a combination of rising U.S. Treasury yields and rising… Continue reading Leveraged Loans to Thrive If Treasury Yields, Volatility Rise