The Financial Times – Are we seeing a peak in bullish equity sentiment at last? Capitulation of equity bears and Mifid II consequences dominate market conversations A well-worn financial cliché is that the time to worry in a bull market is when the last bears start to turn. Following the Trump’s administration’s tax reforms and a… Continue reading Stock Market Sentiment
The New York Post – John Crudele: Which of these asset bubbles will pop first? There are any number of bubbles in financial assets right now. This seems like a good time to guess which are going to pop first. Here are the candidates:
Bloomberg – Fed’s Monetary Policy Cornerstone Attacked at Economists’ Gathering Milton Friedman put a nail in the coffin of the original version of the Phillips Curve 50 years ago when he correctly foresaw that the U.S. could simultaneously suffer from high unemployment and lofty inflation. A growing number of economists are now trying to lay… Continue reading Economists Argue Over The Phillips Curve
Those looking for a steepening yield curve are betting on worsening economic data in 2018.
Google domestic trends point to further gains for U.S. equities in Q1 2018. We expect growth and tech stocks to continue to outperform.
CNBC – US created 148,000 jobs in Dec, vs 190,000 jobs expected The U.S. economy added a disappointing 148,000 jobs in December while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, according to a Labor Department report Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting nonfarm payrolls to grow by 190,000. The total was well below… Continue reading Employment In Pictures – U.S. Added Fewer Jobs Than Expected, But Weather Was Not The Culprit
OPEN Webcast: Will Leveraged Loans Thrive in 2018? In the webcast above, Peter Forbes discusses his recent post on leveraged loans.
The Wall Street Journal – As Dow Tops 25000, Individual Investors Sit It Out Since 2012, $1 trillion has been pulled from retail-investor mutual funds that target U.S. stocks One of the biggest surprises of the U.S. stock market’s relentless rally is how many individual investors have run away from it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average… Continue reading Monthly Fund Flows – Detailing Active vs Passive Flows
Bloomberg Business – Wall Street Giddy on Emerging Markets Amid Signs of Overheating Bulls remained in the driver’s seat as emerging markets kicked off 2018 with one of the best starts since the beginning of the millennium. Equity inflows in the past week soared to the highest level since 2006, while debt exchange-traded funds also took… Continue reading Investors Love Emerging Markets
Research Affiliates – Rob Arnott, Vitali Kalesnik, Jim Masturzo: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong – The CAPE (cyclically adjusted PE) ratio is not a useful timing signal for market turning points, but is a powerful predictor of long-term market returns. – Many arguments have been offered to justify elevated CAPE ratios. Most or… Continue reading The CAPE Ratio
Bloomberg Gadfly – The Bomb Cyclone Breezes Into the Gas Market Fracking upended the U.S. natural gas market before it moved into oil. Rising output, even with prices at sub-$2 levels at times, has for years defied predictions of a sustained rebalancing and rally. Gas producers just seem able to live with it and are expected to… Continue reading More On The Weather Affecting Natural Gas Prices And The Economy