The Wall Street Journal – Euro Defies Treasury Market’s Gravitational Pull Unusually, the single currency surged against the U.S. dollar as German bond yields collapsed For the last year, the euro has been defying the gravitational laws of global markets. The single currency has surged against the U.S. dollar, even as German bond yields have collapsed to multidecade… Continue reading What Is Driving Dollar Weakness?
The New York Times – As Economy Strengthens, Fed Ponders New Approach In the wake of a deep economic crisis and a disappointingly slow recovery, a growing number of experts, including some Federal Reserve officials, say it is time for the Fed to consider a new approach to managing the economy. The Wall Street Journal – Economists… Continue reading Judging Economic Growth
The Financial Times – Hedge funds produce best returns in 4 years Strong performance from managers who bet on stocks restores optimism The global hedge fund industry last year produced its best returns since 2013, driven by strong performances from managers who bet on stocks. Advisers say it is too early to be sure this return… Continue reading Making The Case For Hedge Funds?
Changes in the Fed's policy rate, average hourly earnings, and the composition of Treasury issuance by maturity dictate the path of the US yield curve
Summary U.S. mortgage-backed securities have broadly performed well as the Fed began its balance sheet normalization process. Nominally smaller reinvestment amounts have not rattled MBS performance, and MBS have managed modest outperformance over Treasuries since September. Performance has been well in line with prior Fed tightening campaigns despite the additional influence of diminished reinvestment. Comment… Continue reading U.S. MBS Have Weathered Reinvestment Tapering
Q4 2017 earnings season get started later this week. Expectations are among the highest in the post-crisis period.
The Financial Times – Quant hedge funds set to surpass $1tn management mark The quantitative hedge fund industry is on the brink of surpassing $1tn of assets under management this year after breakneck growth from rising interest in more systematic, computer-powered investment strategies. The amount of money managed by quant hedge funds tracked by HFR,… Continue reading Quant Funds Continue To Grow Despite Mediocre Returns
OPEN Commitment of Traders Analysis For January 5, 2018 On January 5, 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the Commitments of Traders (CoT) statistics for Tuesday, January 2, 2018. Click on the open button above for some charts and a few short webcasts noting some the data we found interesting from our new interactive… Continue reading CoT Webcasts for January 5, 2018
OPEN Webcast: Is Inflation The Most Important Issue In 2018? In the webcast above, Jim Bianco discusses inflation expectations for 2018. The Wall Street Journal – Improving Economy Sparks Rebound In Inflation Bets A measure of the bond market’s expectations for inflation crossed a key threshold in the past week, highlighting investors’ renewed… Continue reading Webcast – Is Inflation The Most Important Issue In 2018?
Comment The S&P 500’s total return in on a 14-month winning streak that dates back to the election (November 2016). This is the second-longest streak on record, only topped by the 15 consecutive positive months ending May 1959. 2017 marks the first calendar year without a loss. Note that this applies to the S&P 500… Continue reading The S&P Completes Its Perfect Year
The Wall Street Journal – Little Guys and Big Trading Firms Square Off in Bitcoin Futures Arena Retail investors are more likely to hold bullish bets on bitcoin, while big players tend to be short Small investors are betting that bitcoin’s price will rise, while hedge funds and other large traders are betting it will fall.… Continue reading Who Trades Bitcoin Futures?