The Wall Street Journal – Blame Central Banks for the U.S. Dollar’s Dark Days The U.S. dollar’s rout extended to a fresh milestone Wednesday as it dropped to its lowest point since late 2014 against a basket of leading global currencies. It’s decline means that more than half of the dollar’s 30% gain during its bull run… Continue reading All About The Dollar
Bloomberg View – The Euro’s Surprises May Just Be Getting Started The euro is on the move, due to positive fundamental and technical reasons. And there is likely still more upside ahead — potentially a lot more. The European Central Bank meets Thursday, and although this gathering may be ho-hum, with no real changes in… Continue reading Bullish On The Euro
The Wall Street Journal – Senate Confirms Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Powell, who was confirmed Tuesday by an 84-13 vote, will take over when Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s four-year term as chief ends Feb. 3. She has said she would leave the Fed board of governors once her successor is sworn in. Although Mr.… Continue reading The Senate Confirms Powell
The Wall Street Journal – What to Do When Europe’s Boom Comes Off the Boil Europe’s economy has started 2018 in near-record-breaking fashion. That is clearly good news, but markets need to prepare for the inevitable pullback. It may not be right now, but it will have trouble getting much better. There were a string of… Continue reading Europe’s Economy
Bloomberg View – Ferdinando Giugliano: Davos Warms to Trumponomics Have criticisms of Donald Trump’s economic policy gone too far? Whisper it quietly, but 12 months after the beginning of the Trump presidency, several economists and business leaders appear willing to give Trump and his tax reform a chance. It may be down to the stock market highs, or… Continue reading Bankers Warm Up To Trumponomics
Bloomberg Business – Dalio Warns That Rise in Yields Could Spark Bond Crash Billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio said that the bond market has slipped into a bear phase and warned that a rise in yields could spark the biggest crisis for fixed-income investors in almost 40 years. “A 1 percent rise in bond yields will… Continue reading Dalio Talks Bonds
Bloomberg View – Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed Can’t Drive Right Without Brakes Its fear of sharp interest-rate increases renders it unable to provide enough stimulus when needed. When asked why they’re gradually removing monetary stimulus even though inflation remains too low, Federal Reserve officials tend to offer the same refrain: If they don’t start moving now, they could eventually… Continue reading The Fed’s Conundrum
The steadfastness of OPEC and non-OPEC producers has convinced markets that oil inventories will continue to fall in 2018.
OPEN Webcast: TIPS Breakeven Curve Ready to Steepen In the webcast above, Ben Breitholtz discusses his recent post titled TIPS Breakeven Curve Ready to Steepen. Comment The chart below shows the relationship between 2 and 10-year odds CPI runs above 2.5% versus below 1.5%. Rises in 2-year inflation expectations prior to 2015 saw much… Continue reading Webcast – TIPS Breakeven Curve Ready to Steepen
OPEN Webcast: Looking At The Yield Curve – Set To Steepen_ In the webcast above, Jim Bianco looks at our recent posts on the yield curve.
Bloomberg – Jim Bianco: Stocks Are Facing Unprecedented Earnings Expectations There is no history of companies beating such an aggressive set of profit forecasts, and this week could set the tone for the next several months. So, maybe the recent strength in equities is justified. If the estimates for 12 percent earnings growth prove accurate,… Continue reading More On Earnings And Stock Prices