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Charts of the Week

A Sentiment Update – The Dollar Remains Unloved, Crude Oil Reaches Extreme Bullishness

January 24, 2018

In past weeks we focused on the extreme level of bullishness in the stock market. This week we turn our eyes to sentiment in the U.S. dollar and crude oil. As the first chart below shows, only 34% of respondents to Consensus Inc.’s survey of newsletter writers and futures traders are currently bullish on the… Continue reading A Sentiment Update – The Dollar Remains Unloved, Crude Oil Reaches Extreme Bullishness

Charts of the Week

Long-Term CAPE Ratio Continues Its March Higher

January 24, 2018

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Charts of the Week

Surprise! Forecasters Still Think Yields Are Going Higher

January 24, 2018

One of the consistent messages from Davos is yields are going up. But, as the chart below shows, forecasters always think yields are heading higher. To put it lightly, they have been a tad bit off in their forecasts.

Charts of the Week

A Long-Term Look At Interest Rates

January 24, 2018

The chart below provides a historical look at the yields of various Treasury instruments as well as Moody’s yields. Some of the data dates back to 1790. In the case of the 10-year note, the following data sets have been spliced together: 1790 to 1831: 3% British Consols 1831 to 1919: High Grade Long-Term Railroad… Continue reading A Long-Term Look At Interest Rates

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Charts of the Week

Trump’s Approval Rating

January 24, 2018

On average, Trump’s approval rating is roughly 3.24% higher in online polls (blue) than polls with human operators (orange). This is referred to as a “shy bias” because some poll respondents are hesitant to approve of Trump to another human being but are willing to do so in an impersonal online poll. As of January 23,… Continue reading Trump’s Approval Rating

Charts of the Week

Stocks Returns Since Janet Yellen Took Over As Fed Chair

January 24, 2018

  The broader stock market beat both value and growth stocks from February 4, 2014 to January 22, 2018.     Financials are up 92% since Yellen took over as Fed chairwoman.     The energy sector is only up 7% since Yellen took over the Fed.      Use the interactive chart below to… Continue reading Stocks Returns Since Janet Yellen Took Over As Fed Chair

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Charts of the Week

Bond Returns Since Janet Yellen Took Over As Fed Chair

January 24, 2018

  The Bloomberg Treasury index is up 6.58% since Yellen began her term as Fed chairwoman.    High yield is up 23%.     To view additional returns, see the interactive chart below.

Charts of the Week

Commodity Returns Since Janet Yellen Took Over As Fed Chair

January 24, 2018

  The Bloomberg commodity index is down 30% since February 4, 2014.     The Bloomberg gold subindex is up 4.55%, while silver and platinum are down 17.51% and 28%, respectively.     Use the interactive chart below to view additional returns.     

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Newsclips

Positive Correlation Between Short- and Long-Term U.S. Treasury Spreads = Steepening

January 24, 2018

The relationships between short- and long-term U.S. Treasury maturities are entering a rare phase typically synonymous with steepening.

Newsclips

Webcast – How “Boring” Is The Stock Market?

January 24, 2018

    OPEN  Webcast: How “Boring” Is The Stock Market? In the webcast above, Jim Bianco discusses the lack of volatility in the stock market.        

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Newsclips

More On Crude Oil 

January 24, 2018

Oil Price – The Biggest Year Yet For U.S. Shale U.S. shale companies are expected to ramp up production this year, and higher oil prices could lead to the industry turning profits for the first time. For years, the shale promise has been hollow. Even when oil prices were trading above $100 per barrel, most shale… Continue reading More On Crude Oil 

Newsclips

China’s Treasury Holdings

January 24, 2018

Bloomberg View – China, U.S. Treasuries and Temporary Truths There are some problems with the idea that China is mulling sales of Treasuries in an attempt to strengthen its hand in trade negotiations. In a span of less than 24 hours, we went from a Bloomberg News report last week that China might reduce its exposure to U.S. Treasuries… Continue reading China’s Treasury Holdings