Bloomberg – Katherine Greifield: Secret to Dollar’s Dim Future Found in Fed’s Last Hiking Cycle Echoes of 2004-07 greenback drop seen in current slump Strong global growth, U.S. political risk reduce dollar appeal Traders wagering on a dollar revival as the Federal Reserve continues raising interest rates need only look back to America’s most recent… Continue reading Two Views On Central Banks And The Dollar
The Wall Street Journal – As Central Banks Pull Back, Market Uncertainty Rises The tide of easy money that lifted advanced economies out of recession will recede in earnest in 2018, opening a new phase in the global economic expansion. From Frankfurt to Tokyo, central-bank officials are seizing on stronger economic indicators, including tentative signs of… Continue reading Central Bank Purchases Expected To Be Negative By Summer 2019
Bloomberg – David Ader: The Bear Case for Bonds? We’ve Heard It All Before If Treasury yields rise to where many expect by year-end, they would make for a nice holiday gift. Besides the never-ending run-up in stocks and the fantastic gyrations of cryptocurrencies, the other big news in markets — and perhaps the most consequential… Continue reading The Bear Case For Bonds?
The Wall Street Journal – Trump Team Keeps Approach to Global Financial Rules, for Now While President Donald Trump hasn’t dropped his skepticism of global institutions, it seemed to be business as usual last year in terms of U.S. engagement with international financial regulators. But there are hints that this approach may change moving forward. The… Continue reading Trump And Rules
Bloomberg Markets – The Fun Is Just Starting for Emerging-Market Stocks The key risk for investors in emerging-market stocks is not getting caught in a slump, but exiting the rally too early. As equities cap the second anniversary of a surge that began after the first U.S. rate hike in a decade, money managers are asking… Continue reading Emerging Markets
The Wall Street Journal – Burton G. Malkiel: How to Invest in an Overpriced World Two strategies that work: broad diversification and rebalancing. Also, try to minimize your costs. What should an investor do when all asset classes appear overpriced? The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond currently yields about 2.6%, much lower than the 5% historical average… Continue reading Investing In A Perfect World
The Wall Street Journal – The Programmer at the Center of a $100 Billion Crypto Storm How a top source of bitcoin data contributed to a sudden plunge in digital currencies The globe-rattling move can be traced to one address: An apartment in a new residential building across the street from a local union headquarters in… Continue reading Crypto Update
After weathering a period of outflows, we think regional banks are poised to soar if the Treasury curve does steepen.
Bloomberg – Why Markets Shrug Off Political Turmoil In the last few years, investors have ignored expert advice about a long list of issues. Despite almost nonstop news coverage last week of the high likelihood and adverse implications of a U.S. government shutdown, the performance of stocks and bonds in recent days betrayed little evidence of… Continue reading Oooooommmm – Equities Remain in a State of Nirvana
Comment Last week we wrote: The S&P 500’s estimated return of 0.23% is the most tepid output by the model since July 2016 when the index went on to suffer a near 5% drawdown. Conversely, U.S. Treasuries, TIPS, and municipal bonds are anticipated to outperform with 2.5+% returns. We have been noting a waning positive correlation… Continue reading The S&P 500 is Rarely the Top Dog for Long
View PDF Summary Through Friday only 53 of the S&P 500 companies (6%) have reported Q4 earnings results. This changes this week as the floodgates open on earnings releases. Analysts continue to expect monster earnings growth rates for Q4 2017 and all of 2018. We will learn how realistic these estimates are in the coming days.… Continue reading Earnings Update – A Critical Week