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Equities Shrug Off Tempering Economic Data Surprises
January 25, 2018
A slowing pace of U.S. economic data beats has historically failed to offer bearish signals for U.S. equities.
Newsclips
Emerging Market Equities Still Soaring as Dollar Tumbles
January 25, 2018
Investors have poured into emerging markets as the U.S. dollar plunged since December 8. Correlations between key emerging market equity sectors have strengthened as the dollar decline accelerated.
Newsclips
Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey Remain Cheap Relative to EM Currencies
January 25, 2018
Comment The chart below shows a novel method of determining the value of emerging market currencies relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The top panel shows the three-month relative return to the index (red/green circles), six-month ranges (vertical lines), and model estimates (asterisks). The bottom panel shows whether or not each currency is cheap or… Continue reading Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey Remain Cheap Relative to EM Currencies
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U.S. 10-year Yields Get a Divorce from the Japanese Yen
January 25, 2018
Comment The divorce between the Japanese yen and U.S. 10-year note yields kicked into a new gear this week. The chart below shows this divergence beginning toward the end of 2017. The three-month correlation between Japanese yen and U.S. 10-year note yields has plummeted from an all-time high of 0.85 to 0.37 (blue… Continue reading U.S. 10-year Yields Get a Divorce from the Japanese Yen
Newsclips
The Treasury’s Dollar Policy
January 25, 2018
Bloomberg – The Treasury Doesn’t Need a Dollar Policy What the Treasury ought to be concerned about is the long-term financial soundness of the U.S. government. The combination of stronger economic expansion and easy monetary conditions is feeding a mood of growing optimism that risks getting out of hand. When the next big setback comes,… Continue reading The Treasury’s Dollar Policy
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Shiller Talks About His CAPE Ratio
January 25, 2018
The Guardian – Robert Shiller: Why is the US stock market so high – and is it justified? In pricing stock markets, people don’t seem to be relying on any good forecast of the next 10 years’ earnings. They just seem to look at the past 10 years, which are already done and gone, but also… Continue reading Shiller Talks About His CAPE Ratio
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A Look At Analysts’ Ratings
January 25, 2018
Bloomberg – Buy? Hold? Sell? It Matters Not There’s little correlation between how an analyst rates a stock and how it subsequently performs — but that might not be the problem it sounds. An analysis of the FTSE 100 lays bare the extent of that disconnect: According to a report by stockbroker AJ Bell, the… Continue reading A Look At Analysts’ Ratings
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Breaking Down Bitcoin Ownership In The U.S.
January 25, 2018
Bloomberg – A Look at Who Owns Bitcoin (Young Men), and Why (Lack of Trust) Chances are, you’ve heard of Bitcoin. But the odds are much smaller that you actually have a stake in it. Nearly 60 percent of Americans have heard or read about the world’s largest cryptocurrency, according to a joint SurveyMonkey and… Continue reading Breaking Down Bitcoin Ownership In The U.S.
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ECB Remains In “Whatever It Takes” Mode
January 25, 2018
The Financial Times – ECB renews vow to keep crisis-era measures in place until inflation rebounds The European Central Bank has kept its interest rates at record lows and reiterated its commitment to keep its crisis-era measures in place — and expand them if necessary — until inflation pressures in the eurozone mount. The ECB’s… Continue reading ECB Remains In “Whatever It Takes” Mode
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Cartoons
January 25, 2018
Charts of the Week
Record Risk-On Cycle Continues
January 24, 2018
The chart below shows the BofA/ML Global Risk Flow Index. Green bars denote periods of risk-on flows into securities like equities and credit. Red bars highlight periods of risk-off flows into securities like sovereigns and gold. As the second panel shows, the current risk-on cycle has now lasted a record 176 days and counting. … Continue reading Record Risk-On Cycle Continues