Newsclips
How The Curve Inverts – Inside Out
June 20, 2018
As the yield curve continues to flatten, we take a look at the manner in which an inversion typically occurs.
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Soybean Losses Strike at the Heart of Trump Country
June 20, 2018
Grains and other agricultural commodities are reeling as trade tensions escalate between the U.S. and China. Chinese tariffs on soybean imports could be devastating for politically critical regions in the rust belt.
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What We’re Reading
June 20, 2018
Today's topics include OPEC, the role of central banks, GE's removal from the DJIA, tax havens, labor stats, low savings rates among Americans and internet consumption.
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Cartoons
June 20, 2018
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Tariffs Threaten to Delay Relief for Trapped Oil
June 19, 2018
Escalating trade tensions threaten to remove U.S. shale access to export markets and constrain critical supplies for improving pipeline capacity. U.S. shale producers face a potentially dire scenario where oil prices rise but inland production can't reach the buyers.
Newsclips
Who Is Hurt By A Trade War?
June 19, 2018
If markets were really worried about an all-out trade war, equities would be down well below their early April low, interest rates would be spiking and the yuan would be crashing. While stocks and the yuan are down, they are not yet at panic levels.
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Inflation Missing Expectations Across the Globe
June 19, 2018
Inflation is missing expectations heading into the summer of 2018, just when central banks ramp up hawkish discussions. Moderately strong economic data in the U.S. will keep the Fed on its hiking path, but a lack of inflation/wage momentum will pressure the yield curve flatter. Those long TIPS should get concerned in the event the U.S. 3-month 10-year spread flattens below 50 bps in the months to come.
Newsclips
Jim’s View: More Record Surveys
June 19, 2018
The Fed has pointed to positive economic surveys as reason to be optimistic on the economy. These surveys may be reflecting little more than political affiliation.
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What We’re Reading
June 19, 2018
Today's topics include scary economic talk, the corporate yield curve, undoing negative rates, Dudley defending rate hikes, bitcoin bulls, interest rate outlook, politics and the markets, Argentina, Draghi, JP Morgan's fine and crude oil.
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Cartoons
June 19, 2018
Newsclips
Tariffs Dominating Headlines, but NOT Markets
June 18, 2018
Trade policy concerns are again on the rise, but financial markets are thus far refusing to react. Implied volatility remains low and asset returns are not yet showing a strong connection to tariff-induced headlines.
Newsclips
High Yield Outperforming but Risks Remain
June 18, 2018
The high yield bond market is outperforming but serious risks from zombie companies and tighter financial conditions remain. Will improving economic growth keep the Fed the room it needs to keep raising interest rates?