Newsclips
Demographics Helping Dictate Long-end Yields Across EM
June 21, 2018
Demographics are an increasingly important issue impacting long-end yields across emerging markets.
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Walmart Levers Up as It Falls Behind
June 21, 2018
Walmart managed to raise cash for its deal but is falling further behind its peers.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
June 21, 2018
Today's topics include the global yield curve, risk, small cap stocks and the trade war, crude oil supply, housing affordability, a corporate debt binge, dividend yields vs. T-bills and a trade dispute of a different kind.
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Cartoons
June 21, 2018
Conference Calls
Conference Call Replay – Was 3.11% The High Water Mark for the 10-Year Yield?
June 20, 2018
The handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our June 21, 2018 conference call titled Was 3.11% The High Water Mark for the 10-Year Yield?can be found below. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). The audio replay can be heard below: The webinar replay is below: Summary Below is… Continue reading Conference Call Replay – Was 3.11% The High Water Mark for the 10-Year Yield?
Conference Calls
Economic Opinion
June 20, 2018
The economy is in great shape. If you look at household surveys, confidence is high. In businesses, confidence is high. If you survey workers about the job market, they will say it is a good environment to find jobs. Businesses say that workers are scarce. We have a really solid economy on our hands here.… Continue reading Economic Opinion
Conference Calls
Economic Reality
June 20, 2018
Conference Calls
Fed Walking the Line, but U.S. 10-year Stuck
June 20, 2018
In the U.S. we continue to watch how well the Fed’s target rate tracks the so-called reversal rate. The reversal rate is the level most likely to keep deposits and lending growth and financial leverage near equilibrium, meaning not too tight or easy. We stress test for this reversal rate by varying the fed funds… Continue reading Fed Walking the Line, but U.S. 10-year Stuck
Conference Calls
How The Curve Inverts
June 20, 2018
Conference Calls
About The Fed
June 20, 2018
Conference Calls
Tariffs Dominating Headlines, but NOT Markets
June 20, 2018
The chart below shows Google search trends (global) for policy concerns ranging from national security to central banks. Trade policy shown in green has clearly risen to the greatest policy concern, while monetary policy remains quite tempered. Tariff headlines are again on the rise as a so-called ‘trade war’ begins between the U.S.… Continue reading Tariffs Dominating Headlines, but NOT Markets
Newsclips
U.S. 10-year Yields Top Dog, but Will Struggle to Break 3.0%
June 20, 2018
U.S. 10-year yields are rarely capable of remaining above other developed economies for extended periods of time. But, U.S. 10-year yields will struggle to push well above the 3.0% threshold given a deteriorating global outlook and extreme consumer confidence.