Newsclips
Are We At Peak Earnings?
June 18, 2018
Earnings, revenues, and guidance are booming. If this is not good enough for the stock market, company results could act as a headwind for stocks the rest of the year.
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What We’re Reading
June 18, 2018
Today's topics include diverging central bank policy, emerging markets & the Fed, European bonds, inflation, crude oil supply and bank payouts.
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Cartoons
June 18, 2018
For sale in Cucuta, Colombia: Purses and wallets made of legal Venezuelan currency. This is what hyperinflation looks like. pic.twitter.com/o8wWqEdWGj — Cody Weddle (@coweddle) June 15, 2018
Newsclips
Global Central Bank Tightening is Limping Along
June 15, 2018
The shift to global tightening in late 2017 will live on assuming the ECB puts an end to purchases by year-end and raises rates in 2019. Financial conditions in the U.S. are not likely to rapidly rise unless the Fed's target rate deviates from the reversal rate.
Newsclips
Opportunities as Central Bank Paths Diverge
June 15, 2018
The Fed has broken away from other western central banks, taking a hawkish path toward two more rate hikes in 2018. The ECB delivered on an end to asset purchases but was forced to acknowledge weakening growth with a forward guidance commitment. The Bank of England still has an opportunity to separate itself from the ECB, and we see potential for widening in the spread between U.K. and German 10-year yields.
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What We’re Reading
June 15, 2018
Today's topics include the dollar, tariffs, FAANMG domination, central bank intervention, why Powell is different, Chinese stock suspensions, bitcoin, the ECB, a possible pardon for Michael Milken and democracy losing ground.
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Cartoons
June 15, 2018
Newsclips
Put Away the Fed Decoder Ring, It’s No Longer Needed
June 14, 2018
Fed watching is for the time being a dead art form with transparency and data dependency on the rise. Bond investors have responded by pricing in dampened volatility and uncertainty. Those tracking the economy in real-time will outperform those attempting to find nuggets within Fed communications.
Newsclips
More On The Fed Hiking IOER By 20 Basis Points
June 14, 2018
Yesterday the Fed raised interest on excess reserves by 20 basis points in an effort to bring the target rate back to the middle of their range. While this does not pose any immediate problems, it highlights the fact that the Fed has entered uncharted territory. Their understanding of these types of quirks will be critical to policy.
Newsclips
Understanding Fedspeak & The Summary Of Economic Projections
June 14, 2018
Yesterday's FOMC statement was one of the most straightforward in a long time.
Newsclips
Natural Gas – The Next NAFTA Flashpoint
June 14, 2018
Surging production and the ramping up of liquified natural gas export terminals present another opportunity for the U.S. to become a global player in liquified natural gas, but deteriorating NAFTA negotiations present a major threat.
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What We’re Reading
June 14, 2018
Today's topics include the ECB's mandate, an inverted yield curve, the euro, crude oil supply, deregulation stalls, stressed Chinese banks and financial reporting.