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Eurozone Economy Set to Converge to U.S.
June 25, 2018
Eurozone economic momentum has finally reached an extreme relative to the United States. Ever-widening spreads between U.S. treasuries and developed sovereigns will likely face headwinds. But, EURUSD has further room for downside until this gap in economic momentum closes.
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Yield Curve, Financial Conditions Weighing Down Banks
June 25, 2018
The flatter Treasury curve and tighter financial conditions combined to dent financial sector performance. There may be room for a rebound, but only if the Fed doesn't brake too hard.
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Conference Call Transcript – Was 3.11% The High Water Mark for the 10-Year Yield?
June 25, 2018
View PDF The handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our June 21, 2018 conference call titled Was 3.11% The High Water Mark for the 10-Year Yield?can be found below. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). The audio replay can be heard below: The webinar replay is below: Summary… Continue reading Conference Call Transcript – Was 3.11% The High Water Mark for the 10-Year Yield?
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What We’re Reading
June 25, 2018
Today's topics include trade, algo trading, the BIS, EM trouble, conflicting views on stocks, earnings, indices and disrupting investment banking.
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Cartoons
June 25, 2018
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Conference Call Replay – Was 3.11% The High Water Mark for the 10-Year Yield?
June 22, 2018
A replay of our June 21, 2018 conference call.
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U.S. Treasuries Have Reached Peak Boredom
June 22, 2018
U.S. Treasury volatility has reached an all-time low along with core inflation, dispersion of economic leading indicators, and monetary policy uncertainty.
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Refuge in Small Caps
June 22, 2018
A shift in ETF investor preferences favors small caps and non-cyclical sectors, but we still don't see definitive signs of risk-off flows.
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Jim’s View: The Fed Pins Its Hopes On Record Inflation Surveys
June 22, 2018
Inflation surveys are booming and are a large reason the Fed is seeking to aggressively hike rates. The problem is these surveys have a poor track record in predicting actual inflation.
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What We’re Reading
June 22, 2018
Today's topics include central bank divergence, trade policy, OPEC, pricing corporate bonds, US bank stress tests, internet sales tax and the equity bull market.