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U.S. and Global Economies Bound to Converge
August 21, 2018
U.S. economic growth has diverged from all others during its streak of outperformance. However the extreme gap between economic data change indices of the U.S. and world at large suggest convergence is likely. In this case, U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar underperform.
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What’s Next for Oil?
August 21, 2018
WTI crude oil is back at fair value and markets are shifting focus back to the debate between slower growth and tighter supplies. Investors are shunning broad energy sector exposure in favor of specific industries with clearer tailwinds.
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A Brief History of Equity Mutual Funds
August 21, 2018
A brief history of equity mutual funds
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More On Russia’s Holdings Of U.S. Treasuries
August 21, 2018
Rumors of Russian accounting gimmickry may help explain some of the reduction in their holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
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What We’re Reading
August 21, 2018
Today's topics include the longest bull market in history, economists vs. CEOs on tariffs, commission-free trading, Treasury trading, the Fed, FAANGs, bitcoin, repatriated cash, the shrinking stock market, quarterly earnings, active management, a look back at the financial crisis and the bolivar.
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Cartoons
August 21, 2018
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A Brief History of Equity Mutual Funds
August 20, 2018
A Look at Nearly 65 Years of Mutual Funds Flows All the charts below show the following series: Red line, log-scale of the S&P 500 Blue bars, rolling 12-month sum of all flows into open-ended mutual funds Green bars – total assets The 1950s: From Dalton, to Harvard, to MFS The Arrival of the Modern… Continue reading A Brief History of Equity Mutual Funds
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How Much Do Tariffs Matter?
August 20, 2018
Only 31 of the 406 (8%) S&P 500 earnings conference calls saw tariffs as an issue for their company. 240 companies did not even bring up the topic. 135 calls mentioned tariffs, but dismissed them as having no meaningful impact. The stock market seems unbothered by the trade wars, essentially at new highs.
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Superstar Companies Dampening Wage Gains
August 20, 2018
The power and breadth of tech-focused disruptors are weighing heavily on wage growth. Bond investors are refusing to chase higher inflation outlooks by economists and Federal Reserve officials. Sales concentration by industry is again on the rise heading into the end of 2018.
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A Break for Gold
August 20, 2018
Gold may be in for a reprieve after converging with fair value. But ETF flows and positioning in futures markets paint an interesting picture about who is bullish.
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Earnings Update
August 20, 2018
Since the tax reform bill was signed in December, earnings have been booming. As the chart above shows, Wall Street sees this as more than a temporary bump as the long-term earnings growth outlook has now topped over 16%. Only the peak of the tech bubble in late 1999 saw higher expectations, and that did not hold. Earnings have never been able to sustain this high a growth rate before, and certainly not starting in year eight of a recovery.