Today's topics include the Fed's balance sheet, betting against Treasuries, nerds vs. jocks on Wall Street, the idea of annual quarterly reporting, problems in Italy, foreign demand for Treasuries, BBB-rated bonds, politics & rising rates, intangible assets and Venezuela.
What looks like a technical issue in the Fed's balance sheet reductions is becoming a bigger deal. While we would not be surprised if the Fed has someone discuss the mechanics of quantitative tightening next week, we doubt the Fed will be too forthcoming about the growing divergence in policy and reality.
The retail industry has enjoyed a sizable rebound over the past three months on the heels of improved U.S. economic growth. Transportation industries have also stood-out, but we fear over-heating interest in shipping and cargo may signal an overshoot.
Australia is leading improvements in economic growth in the Asia Pacific region ex-China. Business search trends still show few signs of improvement, but a positive outcome from rekindled trade talks with the U.S. could be a catalyst.
Today's topics include momentum trading, stock buybacks, the end of quarterly reporting, Italy, 401k millionaires, the yield curve and emerging markets.
Twenty years after the memorable "oasis of prosperity" line, the U.S. dollar is on a tear. Concerns about trade wars, spending policy, and consumer borrowing are risks, but growth differentials and equity markets are driving dollar strength.
Bear markets often serve as a catalyst that forces investors to make trades they otherwise lacked conviction to make. This should not be confused with indiscriminate selling.
Economic surveys suffer from a heavy political bias. More often they are someone's approval of the party in power than an opinion of economic growth.
Turkey's holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to just $29 billion in June.
Today's topics include the trade war, soybean tariffs, copper vs. emerging markets, commodities' struggles, hedging bets on Euro stocks, China's USD peg and Bitcoin marching to its own beat.