A Moody's report spooked some investors and market conditions continue to favor high yield over bank loans. Financial conditions bear watching as the Fed approaches neutral.
Today's topics include the longest bull market in history, previewing Jackson Hole, emerging markets' share of world GDP, the FOMC minutes, China feeling the effects of the trade war and the world's love affair with U.S. debt.
The handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our August 23, 2018 conference call titled The Great Showdown Between Markets and Fed Over Inflation can be found below. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). The audio replay can be heard below: The webinar replay is below: Summary The Fed… Continue reading Conference Call Replay – The Great Showdown Between Markets and Fed Over Inflation
Markets are skeptical that inflation will rise enough to justify the need for several more rate hikes.
U.S. economic growth has diverged from all others during its streak of outperformance. However the extreme gap between economic data change indices of the U.S. and the world at large suggest convergence is likely. In this case, U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar underperform. The chart below shows Citigroup Economic Data Change Indices for major… Continue reading U.S. and Global Economies Bound to Converge
Only 31 of the 406 (8%) S&P 500 earnings conference calls saw tariffs as an issue for their company. 240 companies did not even bring up the topic. 135 calls mentioned tariffs, but dismissed them as having no meaningful impact. The stock market seems unbothered by the trade wars, essentially at new highs. The following… Continue reading A Look At Corporate Speak
Company earnings call transcripts and presentations reveal rising expectations for inflation, wages, capital expenditures, and consumer spending. Trade policy uncertainty has not impaired outlooks.
Even high-income households are holding on to older cars. Search trends have shifted in favor of vans, SUVs, hybrids, and electrics since April.
Political news in the last 24 hours has the press hyperventilating again about Trump's future. Volume in the betting markets spiked yesterday, but overall opinion remains the same.
Today's topics include the myth of the all-powerful Fed, hawkish central banks, declining competition, calls for a new payments system, risk parity funds, the dollar, AI and the future of work and recession talk.