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Why is Everyone Shouting ‘Crisis?!’
August 27, 2018
Financial media are awash with talks about potential crisis, but the risk of sizable equity drawdowns are low. The Eurozone is beginning to produce economic data beats, while the U.S. turns to misses. Past similar instances have kept a lid on the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-year note yields.
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CEOs Telling Two Tales On Tariffs
August 27, 2018
The different results between the Dallas Fed surveys and earnings calls highlight how careful one must be in interpreting groups' opinions. Surveys, which are often considered great leading indicators by economists, come with their own set of issues which must be questioned in any analysis. CEOs are painting a darker picture for the Fed, while remaining rosy for investors.
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Fleeting Victories in ETF Price Wars
August 27, 2018
Vanguard may have achieved a narrow victory, but sustained success has been elusive in the ETF fee price war.
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What We’re Reading
August 27, 2018
Today's topics include timing the rate hikes, Trump & the Fed, tariffs & the Fed, corporate leverage, hedge funds, Italian bonds, Jackson Hole, the yield curve, the Amazon effect, emerging markets, end-of-day trading, bitcoin cash and student debt.
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Cartoons
August 27, 2018
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Target’s Brian Cornell Inadvertently Explains Business Cycles
August 24, 2018
How do business cycles work? Economic actors, like Target's CEO Brian Cornell and his contemporaries, proclaim this is the best consumer environment ever and then act on their opinion by overbuilding. The Fed then fears the economy is overheating and hikes rates too much. Everything goes too far and the economy peaks.
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Short Correlation Trades Risky When Dispersion Already So High
August 24, 2018
Large dispersion of equity returns have greatly benefited short-correlation trades. But, the short windows for success and abnormally low correlations make this a tough time to dip your toe in the water.
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Steep Muni Curve to Treasuries Typical During Maturing Tightening Cycles
August 24, 2018
Municipal bonds refusing to chase U.S. Treasuries flatter is a regulator phenomenon during maturing tightening cycles. We expect the gap in curve spreads to continue until the Fed reaches its so-called neutral rate.
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Healthcare Outperforming as Policy Uncertainty Soars
August 24, 2018
The healthcare sector is outperforming across equities and investment grade credits. With just over two months to mid-term elections, investors are making a big bet on the sector in the face of rising policy uncertainty.
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What We’re Reading
August 24, 2018
Today's topics include a Trump impeachment and market reaction, Jackson Hole, Fed officials speak, leveraged loans, active management woes, volatility, the US economy, investing in monopolies and bitcoin.