Charts of the Week
LT Outlook: Stock Valuations Since 1881
November 28, 2018
Despite the recent correction, stocks are still well above average historical valuations.
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U.S. Inflation Expectations Plummet, Hawkish Focus Turns to Financial Leverage
November 28, 2018
The swift drop in U.S. inflation expectations will be noted by the Federal Reserve in upcoming communications. But, a shifting focus to reining in leverage will likely not lead to the expected drop in rate hike timing.
Newsclips
Weakening Consumer Interest in Mortgages, Home Improvement
November 28, 2018
Consumer search interest in mortgages continues to fade. Fortunes have turned for the home improvement retail industry which had been thriving in a slowing housing market as recently as September.
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What We’re Reading
November 28, 2018
Today's topics include Trump vs the Fed, rising policy uncertainty, the Fed is still helping banks, the US LIBOR vs Euribor spread is at a record high, home prices, junk bonds, tech profits skewing S&P 500 profit margin, global debt markets, GE, volatility isn't helping hedge funds and the third wave of U.S. innovation.
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Cartoons
November 28, 2018
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Investors Beginning to Accept the New Risk-On/Off Paradigm
November 27, 2018
Investors are seemingly coming to terms with the new risk-on/off paradigm evidenced by positive flows to risk assets while the appetite for short duration remains ravenous. All in all, this period of de-risking commencing in late January 2018 is still very much in process.
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How Important Are Tariffs and Friday’s G20 Meeting?
November 27, 2018
The media continues to hyperventilate about tariffs and CEOs feed this belief. Away from the cameras, these same CEOs continue to tell their shareholders the situation is manageable. This will not stop the financial media from whipping everyone into a frenzy about Friday's G20 meeting. Don't get caught in the hype.
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Deleveraging a Risk in Wake of Oil Collapse
November 27, 2018
The last two similarly steep declines in oil prices helped trigger waves of deleveraging in financial markets. A similar echo of deleveraging is a distinct possibility in coming weeks and would be a headwind for banks.
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What We’re Reading
November 27, 2018
Today's topics include the Federal Reserve, what $50 crude oil means for the economy, housing, a transcript of Donald Trump's WSJ interview, the ECB, headwinds for the US economy and a brighter outlook for emerging markets.
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Cartoons
November 27, 2018
The Periodic Table of Investments
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The Struggles of Asset Allocation
November 26, 2018
Concerns over inflation's return are driving the Fed's mission to hike rates. This has led to a high correlation among asset classes, making it more difficult to find positive returning investments.
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U.S Economic Data Becomes the Top Performer
November 26, 2018
Long-end U.S. Treasury yields will be weighed down by slowing global growth. Term premium contained within a 50 bps range for the longest streak on record reflects investors' refusal to match the Federal Reserve's hawkish bent.