Yesterday Jerome Powell changed his tune in saying the funds rate was "just below" neutral rather than "a long way" from neutral. We believe lower inflation expectations are the main reason for this change of heart.
Tumbling inflation expectations and slowing global growth are tempering hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. The probability of Powell pausing has risen to 54%.
Chairman Powell made it explicit in yesterday’s remarks that excessive leverage and weakening underwriting quality are serious concerns. A wave of deleveraging in global risk markets is likely to boost the yen against the U.S. dollar.
Today's topics include a look at Treasury issuance's effect on bond benchmarks, oil exports, crude oil sentiment, leveraged loans, emerging market projections, dividends vs. buybacks and a preview of the Fed minutes.
The CBO recently projected the U.S. government will need much more money to service its debt over the next several years. What are its sources of income?
An interactive visualization showing the GDP per capita of almost every country across the globe
Stagnation in home prices across much of the U.S. since 2006 led to stagnation in the number of owner-occupied homes.
FAANG stocks have not fared well during the latest correction. In fact, Apple is no longer the largest publicly traded company in the world.
A look at high yield option-adjusted spreads by sector
The BOJ's balance sheet recently grew bigger than Japan's GDP.
Selected charts and excerpts from some of our research over the past week.