The vicious collapse in oil prices has the S&P 500 energy sector experiencing its worst performance in a risk-off cycle since 2008. Trouble may be brewing in energy credits even as ETF investors stand their ground.
With Q3 2018 96% complete and showing a booming 25% earnings growth rate, we turn to Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 and see a dramatic slowing in expectations for both earnings and revenues growth.
Today's topics include timing the rate hikes, comparing equity markets across the world, betting against crude oil, Italian markets, a look at GDP's methodology, crude oil supply/demand, repo trading, populism in Europe, comparing private banks, refis as a source of cash and the ETF fee war.
Seasonality suggests U.S. economic data and rate hike timing rise into year-end. However a slowing global economy puts heavy pressure on the U.S. as a lone performer. Volatility should remain high around key U.S. data releases given both the Federal Reserve and markets have become as data dependent as ever.
Weakening search interest for industrial categories and both consumer and commercial credit highlight downside risks for U.K. growth. The gap between market expectations and the Bank of England's public stance is widening.
Is the future of money management big data and coding?
Today's topics include the yield curve, GE, the stock/bond correlation, the economy vs the markets vs the Fed, the corporate bond market, Italy, EM currencies, the repo desk revenues and the art market.
Slowing global growth and tumbling energy prices are weighing heavily on U.S. inflation expectations, which markets continue to peg as the de facto Fed chair.
The story of this credit cycle is ETF hedging and General Electric is the issuer getting the most focus.
Investors are buying into a bounce in emerging market equities, especially in Brazil. Their faith may be tested as we see growing risks from global fund flows and U.S. dollar strength.