2018 proved to be a difficult year to find a decent return as cash beat every major asset class. In fact, since 1926, only a few other years offered a worse asset allocation environment.
A graphical look at employment statistics through December
Today's topics include falling Q4 earnings expectations, excess reserves, more on what Powell needs to address today, the euro, car sales, leveraged loans, the world's oldest government debt, market turmoil, and analysts' bullishness.
We believe the stock market’s rally since Wednesday can be attributed in large part to a belief that the Fed is done hiking. Tomorrow, Powell will be the first Fed official to speak since December 21. If he pushes back on this notion in any way, it will not sit well with the stock market.
If recent market volatility continues, we would expect soft surveys to continue to show signs of weakness. If they all continue moving lower in unison, it may give the Fed all the more reason to reconsider any further rate hikes.
Today's topics include a potential derivatives problem in crude oil, Powell vs. Trump, the Fed's balance sheet, a yen flash crash, a market glitch, gold's rally, overly optimistic frackers, financial engineering and trading volatility.
Don't assume companies with higher insider ownership are a better investment than those without management's buy-in.
While energy, health care and telecom companies make up the largest portion of the high yield universe, the rest of the BofA/Merrill High Yield Master is divided into many small parts.
Over half of all investment grade debt is now BBB-rated.
Illinois lays claim to the highest state muni yield. It has also produced the best returns since the end of 2016.