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A Note to the Fed – Please Explain “Automatic Pilot”
December 24, 2018
Considering nobody knows exactly how the economy and markets will react to reductions in the Fed's balance sheet, terms like "automatic pilot" should be removed from the Fed's lexicon. The markets fear that QT, combined with the Fed's projections for two more rate hikes in 2019, could prove to be too much for the economy to handle.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 24, 2018
Today's topics include a spike in volume, Mnuchin's wild weekend, crude oil projections, using betting markets to gauge consensus opinion, quant funds, a technical take on Bitcoin, the government shutdown and fallen angels.
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Cartoons
December 24, 2018
Newsclips
Are We Creating a Recession?
December 21, 2018
Expansion is the natural state of an economy. Recessions happen because something breaks. We examine some of the main ingredients involved in past recessions.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 21, 2018
Today's topics include Fed officials speaking about the markets, the struggling stock market, the markets and Fed are out of sync, falling crude oil prices, the dollar is having a bad week, LIBOR, quant funds and M&A activity falls in Q4.
Newsclips
Cartoons
December 21, 2018
Conference Calls
Conference Call Replay – Year-End Volatility and a Look Ahead to 2019
December 20, 2018
A replay of our December 20, 2018 conference call.
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Powell Missteps on Balance Sheet Reductions
December 20, 2018
Yesterday the markets reacted strongly to Powell's comments on the balance sheet.
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The Fed Is Not Worried About the Market, Is This a Problem?
December 20, 2018
Powell downplayed the stock market correction at yesterday's meeting.
Newsclips
Understanding Fedspeak and the Summary of Economic Projections
December 20, 2018
FOMC statements in the Powell era remain short and to the point.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 20, 2018
Today's topics include Trump's criticisms of the Fed, a history of indexation, bear market watch, corporate issuance, tax implications for hedge fund investors, goodwill impairments, the PBOC's lending facility and Bitcoin's terrible year.