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Brexit Uncertainty Risks Hurting the UK
January 8, 2019
No one seems to know what to make of Brexit. A resolution is badly needed as the UK economy is at risk of grinding to a halt.
Newsclips
Investment Grade and High Yield Diverge
January 8, 2019
Price and volume between investment grade and high yield are diverging in ways not seen in years. This represents a risk for high yield moreso than investment grade.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 8, 2019
Today's topics include the Federal Reserve, U.S. policy, bond yield forecasts, MEMX stock exchange, a few hedge funds thrived last year, why banks should be raising capital, the gig economy, investors are moving into illiquid assets, the government shutdown is depriving markets of key data and Germany.
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Cartoons
January 8, 2019
Newsclips
The Fed Finally “Gets It”
January 7, 2019
The Fed made a mistake in being overly hawkish as the economy turned south. It took three weeks of wild market volatility before they altered their stance. In taking so long to change their tune, the Fed added to an already decelerating economy.
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The Fed Turns Dovish
January 7, 2019
Prior to Friday's comments, Powell and the markets were on different pages concerning FOMC policy. However, Powell's comments were taken as a change in policy. For now, the rate hike cycle is over.
Newsclips
2019 Earnings Are a Concern
January 7, 2019
Q4 2018 S&P 500 operating earnings estimates look good, but this is the last quarter benefiting from the corporate tax cuts. As analysts focus on 2019, the story gets worrisome.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 7, 2019
Today's topics include China' slowdown, returns in 2018, synchronized global monetary policy, interpreting market turmoil, French protests, hedge fund returns, the bear market, forecasts for 2019, venture capitalists and the world's oldest government bond.
Newsclips
Cartoons
January 7, 2019
Newsclips
The Market and the Fed Are on Different Pages
January 4, 2019
For the first time in 11 years, the markets are closer to pricing in a rate cut than a rate hike. The Fed is still talking about rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. We cannot find a historical example of the markets and the Fed being on such different pages. It sets up a dangerous situation for the Fed to navigate.
Newsclips
The Yield Curve Gives the Fed a Red Light
January 4, 2019
The yield curve has imploded in recent days and is now telling the Fed to stop hiking, maybe even ease. Will the Fed hear this message?