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When Stocks Make December Lows, The Following Year Is Not Pretty!
December 19, 2018
It is unusual for the stock market to make new lows in December, especially in the second half of December. This is adding to the anxiety on Wall Street and does not bode well for next year.
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Public and Spending Policy More Worrying Than Trade
December 19, 2018
Public and spending policy uncertainties are on the rise, not helped by turmoil surrounding Trump. Unlike trade, concerns of the future of public and spending policies are denting growth outlooks and instigating market volatility.
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Latest Drop in Oil Prices Might Pack a Punch
December 19, 2018
The latest drop in crude oil may be the most painful to date. Spot prices and longer-dated oil swaps are falling into the range of estimated breakevens for U.S. shale. The gap between integrated and independent producers is likely to widen.
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Today Is All About the Federal Reserve
December 19, 2018
Jim appeared on CNBC yesterday afternoon and discussed the Federal Reserve.
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TIC Update – Japan Has Sold the Same Amount of Treasuries as China Since Trade War Started
December 19, 2018
All eyes are on China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries because of the trade war, but Japan has actually sold the same amount since February.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 19, 2018
Today's topics include the FOMC meeting, falling crude oil, market volatility, technical analysis, Brexit, hedge funds' exposure to U.S. equities and slowing global growth.
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Questions Remain on the Fed’s Balance Sheet
December 18, 2018
Wall Street is having a tough time determining how large the Fed's SOMA portfolio will be at the conclusion of quantitative tightening. Likewise, estimates vary on how much accomodation is being removed via balance sheet reduction.
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Everyone Is Shouting ‘Policy Mistake!’
December 18, 2018
Fears of a Fed policy mistake have burst to levels witnessed during the yuan devaluation and global weakness of September 2015.
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A Dovish Course Correction and the Dollar
December 18, 2018
Given the carnage in markets and the repricing of economic growth, some form of dovish concession is expected from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. What would a dovish course correction mean for the U.S. dollar?
Newsclips
Don’t Blame Political Turmoil for the Market Selloff
December 18, 2018
On the heels of Michael Cohen's sentencing, the topic of a Trump impeachment has reached a crescendo on cable news channels. Some have suggested this chatter is taking a toll on the markets. We examine this possibility in several different ways, ultimately finding no real relationship.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 18, 2018
Today's topics include Trump vs the Fed, the CNBC Fed survey, the stock market is on pace for its worst December since 1931, yield curve inversion, hedge fund performance, investors rotate into bonds, EM currencies and Wall Street bonuses.