Newsclips
Election Update: Democrat Debate Tonight
December 19, 2019
Going into tonight's Democrat debate, Bernie Sanders is surging in both the betting markets and polls. If he is not the front-runner today, he is very close to it.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 19, 2019
Today's topics include the latest on the Fed's repo operations, a look at bank stocks since 2007, window dressing at big banks, a look ahead to 2020 returns, tangible vs. intangible assets, the transition away from LIBOR, the effect of Trump's Fed tweets, quality vs. quantity in the jobs market, a critique of Sweden's move away from negative rates, emerging market junk bonds and blurring the fiscal/monetary policy line.
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Cartoons
December 19, 2019
Newsclips
Impeachment Today
December 18, 2019
Passing articles of impeachment without a majority of the country's backing risks a backlash. Trump's surging approval rating appears to be the result. It is quite possible today's impeachment vote will not result in Trump's removal, but rather could help his chance at re-election.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 18, 2019
Today's topics include the top-heavy S&P 500, the U.S. deficit, breaking down global spending, skepticism on China's promise of agricultural purchases, reducing long-term uncertainty, optimism in manufacturing, investing outside the U.S., demographics in the U.S. and junk bonds.
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Cartoons
December 18, 2019
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Fed Repo Support Should Surge in Coming Days Before Abating
December 17, 2019
The Fed's support of the repo market via overnight operations, term operations and T-bill purchases could exceed $500 billion on the final day of the year. Beginning in January, however, this sum will likely begin to dwindle. The question is whether the Fed will be able extricate itself as the repo operator of last resort.
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TIC Update – China’s Forex Reserves as a Proxy for U.S. Treasury Holdings
December 17, 2019
Japan remains the top foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries in October. China's forex reserves are also monitored as a proxy for U.S. Treasury holdings.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 17, 2019
Today's topics include record equity fund outflows in 2019, no Brexit extension, European stocks, fund managers turn bullish, crude oil supply and demand, comparing Chinese monetary policy to U.S. monetary policy, corporate bonds' good year, recession fears fade, El-Erian on the trade truce and a look back at the tech darlings of 2019.
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Cartoons
December 17, 2019
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 16, 2019
Today's topics include economists' difficult job, predicting the future - stocks vs. bonds, accounting for differences between CPI and PCE, record year for bond fund flows, the deficit's role in the repo market's problems, beating the S&P is difficult, measuring profits and risk management at big banks.