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Weekly Research Roundup
November 29, 2019
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Monthly Fund Flows – Equity Funds Post Third Largest Outflow Since Financial Crisis
November 29, 2019
In October, equity funds saw their third largest monthly outflow since the financial crisis and their eighth straight monthly outflow.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 29, 2019
Today's topics include swing state economies, China's shaky financial system, finance tackling climate change, dollar doomsayers, risk-on amidst easy money policies, bond ETF liquidity, deflating the credit bubble, central banks' forward guidance, misplaced trade deal optimism and Byron Wien sees higher stock prices.
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Cartoons
November 29, 2019
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Is the Bond Market Losing Patience?
November 27, 2019
Forward measures of inflation suggest the Fed's target of 2% will remain elusive. The bond market has taken note, as the recent rise in yields and steepening yield curve have stalled.
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The Race for the Democrat Nomination
November 27, 2019
An update on the race for the Democrat nomination, including a new sortable table to track candidate's odds at the upcoming primaries
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 27, 2019
Today's topics include the latest vague promises on the trade front, more on the Fed's repo operations, measuring income growth in battleground states, direct listings vs. IPOs, trading volatility, more on China's dollar bond sale, MSCI calls for Chinese reform for larger weight in index, the case against shorting stocks and euro volatility hits an all-time low.
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Cartoons
November 27, 2019
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Diverging Trends in the Risk-On Rally
November 26, 2019
The safest risk assets have outperformed lower quality risk assets in the latest rally. Poor earnings prospects, bad Q4 GDP forecasts, and defensive CEOs have all contributed to some trepidation in going full risk-on. Although markets lead data, patience will start to wear thin if economic confirmation does not come soon.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 26, 2019
Today's topics include the trade war, the repo market, one measure of employment finally surpasses 2008 peak, ECB purchases have pushed rates down at least 100 basis points, China's dollar bond sale, online vs. brick and mortar holiday shopping, Japanification, comparing 1998 to 2019, El-Erian sees increased pressure on the Fed and opinions on the markets in 2020.
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Cartoons
November 26, 2019
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Earnings Update: Tracking an Earnings Recession
November 25, 2019
Q3 2019 earnings season is over 95% complete and it's now assured to be a negative growth quarter. Q4 is also forecasting negative growth, setting up the potential for an earnings recession.