Today's topics include breaking down Treasury issuance, little chance of a cut tomorrow, retail investors becoming more sophisticated, valuations offer little upside, AI & recent graduate employment, the PhD bear market, and a risk of stablecoins for the EU
On August 1st we discussed how Friday’s jobs data highlights labor market strain from stalled population growth, raising inflation risks if rates are cut. Meanwhile, tariffs are adding to price pressures, and speculation around Fed leadership continues amid market overreactions.
The Commitments of Traders report enables investors to track changes in positions among various groups of traders/investors.
Today's topics include more commentary on Treasury issuance, U.S. - EU trade deal, U.S. economic strength, retail traders & bubble risks, who's buying in this housing market? Investors, Fed dissents, depopulation & the U.S. economy, and more concerns about crypto
Today's topics include 40% see decline in real wages, Trump versus Powell, companies beating earnings estimates, the Fed & housing market, anecdotal evidence that American companies are soaking tariff costs, bubble risk?, stagflation concerns, your daily dose of meme stocks, souring sentiment in the UK, and risks of stablecoins
The Confidence Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is a model. Its construction and indicators mimic the thinking of many economists and market types. Although this model is incorrect, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the economy.
Trump's social media account provides an unfiltered glimpse into his thought process. This makes it a valuable tool. We examine his "Truths" posted on Truth Social with an emphasis on his Fed related Posts.
Both equity and bond markets have been rather calm the past few months, coming off the Liberation Day chaos. Traders are increasingly anticipating volatility to pick up in the future.
We believe Trump’s approval rating is the second most important factor, after the economy, in potentially changing his agenda. Currently, an average approval rating of 44.7% is not low enough to prompt a change.