Focused Research
Inflation Watch – A Big Miss With an Asterisk
December 18, 2025
Inflation came in lower than even the lowest forecasts, but there are some questions surrounding the BLS handling of missing October data.
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What We’re Reading
December 18, 2025
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 18, 2025
Focused Research
What Is Holding Back the Bond Market?
December 17, 2025
Given the state of markets, inflation, and the economy, the 10-year yield should be almost 100 basis points lower.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
December 17, 2025
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 17, 2025
Focused Research
Employment in Pictures – Concern for the Labor Market
December 16, 2025
The birth-death model is likely overstating job creation, leading Powell to suggest payrolls might actually be contracting by 20k jobs per month since March.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
December 16, 2025
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 16, 2025
Conference Calls
Should Fed Officials Prioritize Their Inflation or Employment Mandate?
December 15, 2025
A replay of our conference call discussing the Fed's balancing of the dual mandate.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
December 15, 2025
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 15, 2025
Focused Research
Diagnosing the Employment Breakeven Level
December 12, 2025
Economists have viewed lower monthly payrolls growth as a significant negative for the economy. Other indicators reject this and if you account for declining population growth, the labor market might actually be balanced.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
December 12, 2025
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 12, 2025
Charts of the Week
When Will the Fed Return to Profitability?
December 12, 2025
The Fed's losses seem to be slowing, but they have a huge hole to dig out of before they pay off all their IOUs to the Treasury.
Charts of the Week
A Note on Gross Treasury Issuance vs. Net Treasury Issaunce
December 12, 2025
T-bill issuance is higher on both a gross and net basis, but examining the data on a gross issuance exaggerates the trend.