Today's topics include breaking down yesterday's oral arguments on tariffs, the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement, uncertainty at the Fed, what the next round of "not QE" might look like, treasury seasonal patterns, stocks for the long run, and crypto's correlation to other assets
Today's topics include your daily update on the funding markets, retail traders' bad day, fallen angels, more on stretched valuations & a lack of breadth, the cost of the government shutdown, profiling homebuyers, a crypto bear market hits quick, and election takeaways for markets
Fed intervention to keep SOFR rates within their target range masks the market signal that the government is borrowing too much relative to the size of funding markets. Should the Fed artificially supply more funding, it would encourage higher stock prices. But it would also encourage even more government spending, which has been a primary driver of inflation remaining well above 2% fully five years after the shutdowns were lifted.
We are nearly two-thirds through the Q3 reporting season, with 316 companies having reported. The year-over-year annualized quarterly growth rate stands at 12.98%.
Today's topics include your daily update on the funding markets, the call for QE grows, more on the TGA's growth above $1 trillion, the Treasury announces its borrowing needs, Fedspeak, a lack of market breadth, Michael Burry has entered the building, and an eye on risky borrowers
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss the AI Bubble, the K-Shaped Economy & how the Lack of Government Data is Affecting the Fed & the Equity Market with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern.
On November 5 the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments about the legality of the President's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. Lower courts have ruled he exceeded this authority. If the Supreme Court agrees, it is possible they could order refunds of hundreds of billions of tariffs which could be highly destabilizing for the economy. A ruling is expect late this year or early in 2026.
Stocks have outperformed bonds by one of the widest margins on record over the past six months.
Today's topics include Miran thinks policy rate is still too restrictive, the K-shaped economy, the cost of power in the AI infrastructure era, Waller still wants a December cut, the AI winners versus everything else...again, some context on the state of the U.S. economy, and fixed mortgages still dominant
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows
Today's topics include two central banks diverge, commentary on Fed dissents, locking in fed funds as the Fed's tool, Burry resurfaces, more on AI capex spending, housing affordability, ETFs are making mutual funds old school, and Solomon's debt reckoning warning echoes Dalio
Fallen angels are superior performers to the rest of the high yield market.