Markets
CoT Commentary: Small Traders Largest Gold Net Long Since 2022
June 2, 2025
The Commitments of Traders report allows investors to gauge position changes for different groups of traders/investors.
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Total Return Review – Updating Markets’ Reactions to Inflation & Trade War
June 2, 2025
Gold has trended higher this year on inflation concerns. The dollar has depreciated and U.S. stocks have lagged as investors remain concerned about the consequences of the trade war.
Financial News
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
June 2, 2025
Today's topics include the economy & tariffs, thoughts on the dollar, buyers strike for 30-year Treasuries?, quant driven strategies continue to grow, characterizing the 2025 equity market, El-Erian on the fed's difficult position, summer vacation travel, eyes on more JGB auctions this week, Warsh criticizes the Fed for not doing more on debt, and concentration risk in private credit
Humor
Cartoons
June 2, 2025
Markets
What is the Proper Level of Rates?
May 30, 2025
Long-term yields are loosely tied to nominal GDP growth. Nominal means real growth plus inflation. Indeed, we find that long-term bond yields should and do approximate nominal GDP growth.
Financial News
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 30, 2025
Today's topics include U.S.-China shipments are still flowing, how are tariff-impacted stocks trading?, Fedspeak, 'Sell in May & go away' backfires in 2025, more on tariff court ruling, the state of the labor market, the state of the housing market, American military might versus China's booming capacity, the future of Fannie & Freddie, what is Section 899 in the 'big beautiful bill?', and quantifying EU-US business relationships
Humor
Cartoons
May 30, 2025
Bonds
Last Week’s Treasury Auctions Get B+ Grade
May 30, 2025
Despite many concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation and rating downgrade, this past week's Treasury auctions were solid.
Interest Rates
Still No Sign of Stress in Funding Markets
May 30, 2025
As reserves continue to be drained from the system, Fed officials are undoubtedly watching SOFR for signs of strain.
Economy
A Break in Increasing Foreign Employment
May 30, 2025
Given the surge in immigration during the previous five years, a breakdown of the labor force gives clarity to the strength behind the U.S. economy over the same period.
Interest Rates
Over Half of All Government Debt Yields at Least 4%
May 30, 2025
Over half of all sovereign debt yields at least 4%, making it a competitive alternative to stocks.
Economy
Rising U.S. Government Interest Costs
May 30, 2025
For the last few decades the U.S. has been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. A 40-year high in inflation and the higher rates that followed are stressing the country's finances.