Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, rate cuts after September depend on labor market, Trump attempts to block Lisa Cook from FOMC meeting, more on Bessent's claim of mission creep at the Fed, gold's rally, global fiscal issues, small caps outperform S&P 500 since end of July, and a history of the dollar
An argument can be made that the labor market’s breakeven rate, an estimate of how many jobs the U.S. economy needs to create to keep up with population changes, is nearing zero. If so, cutting rates to stimulate an economy with no excess capacity risks pushing already elevated inflation higher.
Year-over-year inflation came in right at expectations. The CPI report has now taken a bit of a back seat to the monthly payrolls release, so today's inflation data did little to change traders' minds on the odds of future rate cuts.
Join us Thursday, September 11, for our next conference call discussing the labor market & rate cuts.
Today's topics include tariffs & the economy, the state of the equity rally, Ellison takes richest person crown from Musk, a subprime blowup, strong 10-year treasury auction, return-to-office, and China ditching dollar reserves
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, Cook to remain a governor for now, Miran's nomination could affect the Fed's summary of economic projections, Bessent takes aim at the Fed, QCEW revisions, labor market supply & demand, real wages stagnate, regional banks outperforming broad financial sector since April, and central banks' gold holdings
Today's topics include today's preliminary benchmark revision, a bond bull market, Trump continues his battle against the BLS, Dems demand Miran resigns as Chief Economic Advisor to be named to Fed board, the bull case for stocks, the oil industry reins in spending, a call to move to biannual earnings reports, and French yields converge with Italian yields
An argument can be made that the labor market's breakeven rate, an estimate of how many jobs the U.S. economy needs to create to keep up with population changes, is nearing zero. If so, cutting rates to stimulate an economy with no excess capacity risks pushing already elevated inflation higher.