Today's topics include New York City rents climbing still, how New Yorkers commute, food costs rising, how long will gas prices remain high?, supply chain problems easing?, on credit, when retail loses out in the market, renewable bubble challenges, and the state of global democracy
Bloomberg: Inflation-Stoking Supply Crunch Set to Ease in Second Half Christian Wienberg and Anna Edwards – A major player in global trade signaled disrupted supply chains rattling economies from Vietnam to Germany may return to normal within months, easing concerns of a more protracted period of shipping chaos that has helped fuel inflation, wreaked havoc… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 9th, 2022
The high yield market, and we would argue the larger credit markets, have had two cycles over the past decade - buy and hedge. Right now we are in a hedging cycle. Persistent inflation and QT could initiate the first selling cycle in a long time.
Base effects point to a peak in inflation this spring. But the real question is, "How fast does inflation recede?" If it does not fall quickly enough, the political pressure on the Fed could demand 5 or so rate hikes, plus QT, in the next year.
Today's topics include measuring the bond market's slide, how might QT affect term premiums?, big tech valuations, credit card usage, shale oil efficiencies, economic pain in the UK?, rising rates & savings, and the growth of unicorns
Jim Bianco: The market now has 6 hikes priced in over the 7 FOMC meetings remaining in 2022. The consensus STILL cannot catch up to market pricing. Also not the market has 5 hikes priced in for the next 5 meetings. And the probability of 50bps hike in March is 29%. Jim Bianco: *ALUMINUM HITS… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 8th, 2022
Today's topics include searching for max employment, working from home, what happens after everyone hedges?, the rush to cash, getting defensive with dividend stocks, profitability during bear markets, housing affordability, and the case against stablecoins
Jim Bianco: Spotify stock is down by almost half since it fall peak. The latest acceleration lower is the fear that they might lost Joe Rogan. And Rumble has stepped in today and offer Rogan $100 million to move to their platform. Twitter: Rumble @rumblevideo Hey @joerogan, we are ready to fight alongside you. See the note… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 7th, 2022
Fourth quarter earnings have come in high versus historical norms, albeit slightly below previous quarters. Company guidance has shifted as companies prepare for a new paradigm of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.