Today's topics include what is the Fed's priority, room to hike?, short-term staffing, rate hikes & stocks, central bankers vs. inflation, more on the payrolls revisions, backwardation in the commodities markets, European gas supplies, a Chinese slowdown, cash on the sidelines, corporate bond traders looking for cover, and regulating crypto
Jim Bianco: *U.S. AVERAGE RETAIL GASOLINE PRICE SURGES TO HIGHEST SINCE 2014 Twitter: Jonathan Ferro @FerroTV Payrolls estimates todayMedian: 125k High: 250k Low: -400k CPI estimates next week Median: 7.3% High: 7.6% Low: 7% Tweet Jim Bianco: Boy did everyone gets this wrong! 1.26% 2-year Two-month revisions was +709K (no typo!!) Dec went from 199k to… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 4th, 2022
The January payrolls number exceeded even the most optimistic estimates. While the focus remains on inflation, the odds of a 50 basis point hike in March have begun to move higher.
Today's topics include small businesses raising wages, capital investment will continue , used car prices peaking?, how high will rates go?, ECB hawkish shift, learning from the past, where did all the workers go?, liquidity holes arrive & cause issues, measuring real inflation is extremely difficult, and Meta's record value wipeout comes as hawks arrive
Even if automobiles are excluded, retailers' inventories-to-sales ratio is near an all-time low.
The market currently expects hikes at each of the next four meetings. The idea of a 50 basis point hike at the March meeting gained a bit of steam after Friday's payrolls report.
Those aged 60+ consistently have higher inflation expectations than those under 40.
Value had a great month or two relative to growth. In the short-term some sort of mean reversal would not be a surprise. However, long-term value has barely begun its retracement of growth's outperformance of the past 15 years.
The market's slide over the past few months brought the total size of the crypto universe from $2.9 trillion to $1.6 trillion.
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt