The yield curve's flattening is a sign of growing concern that the Fed is going to hike too much and break something. The curve is not yet inverted, which would signal the market believes things are already breaking, but it continues to move toward that level.
Today's topics include IMF bangs the QT drum, more on wages, backwardation's tailwinds, Russian holdings of U.S. debt, money supply, hedge funds reduce tech exposure, retail crowd loses interest in penny stocks, and slow & steady stock market millionaires
Fourth-quarter earnings have come in high versus historical norms, albeit slightly below previous quarters. Company guidance has shifted as companies prepare for a new paradigm of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.
Today's topics include all eyes on Russia/Ukraine, profiting off inflation, inventories vs. sales, wage growth spreading to higher salary workers, bearish bets, index managers hold all the power, checking in on the odds of a 50 basis point hike in March, and dodging tariffs
Today's topics include Dudley on the fed's interest costs, interpreting junk bond yields, cheap vs. expensive stocks, watching for a wage price spiral, age matters in inflation attitudes, inflation adjusted for quality, and food inflation
Today's topics include Zoltan calls for Volcker-style inflation fight, futures curves & monetary policy, parsing the FOMC minutes, retail sales telling different story from consumer confidence, omicron's effect on labor market recedes, stock vs. bond flows, IMF warns on continued supply chain issues, treasuries volatility & liquidity, and crypto regulation
Bianco Research Conference Call: Fed Tightening Is Coming Thursday, February 17 at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 15:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. The era of easy money is over. Now comes the tightening. How… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 16th, 2022
Passive 'buy and hold' capital has been pouring into the market even during the 10% decline in January 2022. This has led to a divergence in flows between allocator funds and trading funds.