Today's topics include a big miss in confidence, the Fed squashes any discussion of an emergency hike, seven hikes coming, the 2-year yield's wild day, alternate views of inflation, The Economist goes gloom & doom, wage-price spirals?, startup valuations, Bullard sees four hikes by mid-year, inflation & politics, and more on backwardation
Household debt in the U.S. rose to $15.58 trillion in the fourth quarter.
Consumers are being cautious with their lines of credit, using just 21% of their credit limit.
People under 30 and over 70 hold a relatively small amount of debt compared to other age groups.
The average third party collection totaled $1234 in the fourth quarter, the lowest since Q1 2007.
Household debt broken down by delinquency status
Outstanding credit card debt has declined from pre-pandemic levels. This was likely due to a lack of spending options during quarantines. Over the past few quarters, however, this form of debt is once again on the rise.
The fourth quarter saw $1.04 trillion in mortgage origination.
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Colleague: First time ever 5 consecutive worst than expected CPI. Jim Bianco: Durable good inflation is up 18% YoY. We are still buying “stuff” and not shifting to “services” or “experiences.” CME Fed Watch page is updating very slowly … must be getting overwhelmed. Now the CME page is not updating at all. WIRP <go>… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 10th, 2022
Used car and truck prices are still rising, but at a much slower rate than in mid-2021. Meanwhile, housing prices are beginning to heat up. The degree to which housing offsets the the more temporary categories will go a long way in determining the inflation story over the next year.