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How Worried Is the Market About Debt Default?
January 6, 2023
The press is looking for ways the drama over electing a Speaker of the House might impact the real world. They seem to have settled on it being a warning that a technical debt default is more likely. But there is a way to measure the likelihood of debt default in the Treasury bill market, and it is not showing much concern.
Charts of the Week
FOMC Officials’ Inflation Outlook
January 6, 2023
The percentage of Fed officials reporting upside risks to inflation was slightly lower in the December Summary of Economic Projections, but this comes amidst record uncertainty.
Charts of the Week
Checking on the Supply Chain to Start 2023
January 6, 2023
During the Covid-19 crisis, the global supply chain was decimated as lack of workers, lockdowns, and shortages drove shipping and transportation rates to record levels. By the end of 2022 though, the cost to transport goods had dropped to near pre-pandemic levels.
Charts of the Week
ETH’s Issuance Goes Deflationary
January 6, 2023
Since the merge, ETH's burn rate more than offsets its issuance rate. It is now a deflationary asset.
Charts of the Week
Housing Market’s Slowdown Continues
January 6, 2023
Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a slowdown in the crazy conditions of the last year.
Charts of the Week
Negative-Yielding Debt Disappears
January 6, 2023
Japan's 1-year note yield briefly turned positive for the first time in roughly seven years. This is significant in that Japan's 1-year note was the last holdout of negative-yielding bonds in Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Index.
Charts of the Week
A Long-Term Look at U.S. Dollar/British Pound Exchange Rates
January 6, 2023
A long-term look at U.S. dollar/British pound exchange rates
Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Recap
January 6, 2023
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 5, 2023
Today's topics include a look back & a look ahead at job growth, pivot hopes continue unabated, not everyone thinks inflation has been slayed, alternative interpretations of labor market churn & productivity, who will buy as central banks step away?, Kashkari on the Fed's inflation models, this time is different: yield curve edition, and insider sentiment
Newsclips
Cartoons
January 5, 2023
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 4, 2023
Today's topics include interpreting various labor market indicators, previewing the FOMC minutes, earnings devaluation in 2022, falling natural gas prices, Cathie Wood buys more Tesla after rout, how long can the BoJ maintain yield curve control?, and iron ore as a gauge of China's reopening