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Did the Bank of Japan Succumb to Inflation?
December 20, 2022
The Bank of Japan raised the cap on 10-year JGB yields in what they called a technical adjustment due to financial stability issues. The real reason this move was necessary is that inflation is running way ahead of their target and forcing yields higher.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 20, 2022
Today's topics include keeping an eye on the discount window, the art of stock picking, recession odds continue to rise, the housing market, is NYC giving up on five days in the office each week?, wages vs. inflation, China's reopening, and more on China's Covid statistics
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Cartoons
December 20, 2022
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 19, 2022
Today's topics include contrarian bond call, wages & inflation, Bill Gross says the fed needs to stop raising rates, plans to refill the SPR, the pros vs. retail, China's covid numbers, Europe's energy crisis, the 60/40 portfolio fails at key level, an earnings recession, and Michael Burry calls crypto audits meaningless
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Cartoons
December 19, 2022
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What’s Next for Rates?
December 16, 2022
We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.
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TIC Update – Japan & China’s Treasury Holdings Drop Again
December 16, 2022
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped again in October. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 16, 2022
Today's topics include will there be a policy mistake?, recession fears, what do Americans think about the 2023 economy?, transitory vs. structural...again, Europe might avoid worst-case scenario, on services inflation, merger arbitrage outperformed stocks & bonds, and Binance audit group quits crypto
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Cartoons
December 16, 2022
The best meme I have seen on the recession priced in or not debate ? pic.twitter.com/pcLrhWS3zT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 12, 2022
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 15, 2022
Today's topics include the market isn't buying Powell's 'higher for longer', the Fed's summary of economic projections, understanding Fedspeak, could all the jobs gains be revised away?, poking holes at the pivot theories, Goldman bullish on commodities, and AI is coming for research jobs