Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, Timiraos on the Fed's path, interest rate regimes, the 2020s had their own version of 'irrational exuberance', a series break in China's Covid data, tech falls out of favor, quants outperforming this year, and Elon gives up title of world's richest
CPI came in well below expectations again in November. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.
Today's topics include what type of recession is coming?, big tech is now the obstacle, global trade surge, more options market chaos, VIX & S&P 500 moved in tandem yesterday, risks of upside inflation surprise, slower rising rates, yield curve signaling, China's reopening struggles, but surveys see optimism on China, and FTX founder sees charges...along with handcuffs
A replay of our December 15, 2022 conference call
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, the market still hoping for a pivot..., ...and a soft landing, is a 2% inflation target still appropriate?, the jobs market, trading counterparty risk for liquidity risk, higher rates hurting banks?, more on China's Covid U-turn, container ships head to east coast, and Defi vs. Cefi
Today's topics include some see gains, some see pain, investments leaving UK funds, can pensions keep being market winners?, the price of oil, inflation and investing: changes ahead, remote work & wage inflation, and crypto
The Fed's cumulative losses now total over $13 billion.
As Quantitative Tightening (QT) and other tightening policies continue, the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is an essential piece to understanding how the Fed can potentially enact a smooth balance sheet reduction schedule.