Newsclips
Why Disappointing Earnings Matter
February 16, 2023
By most metrics, Q4 2022 earnings are disappointing. This matters for the market's valuation.
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TIC Update – Little Change in Foreign Treasury Holdings in December
February 16, 2023
Holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined slightly in China and Japan in December, mimicking the small drop in Treasury total returns.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 16, 2023
Today's topics include Jim discusses "no landing" scenario, job switchers, betting on a VIX resurrection, daring Powell to keep going, strong consumer spending, debt ceiling drama, a new regime at the BoJ, private valuations, and silent race on technology
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Cartoons
February 16, 2023
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 15, 2023
Today's topics include an eye on core services inflation, should the Fed change its 2% target?, the effect of QE/QT on asset prices, Fed officials reiterate higher for longer, more on Brainard's Fed departure, a deep dive on economic survey response rates, the move from mutual funds to ETFs, and the risks of central bank digital currencies
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Cartoons
February 15, 2023
Media & Communications
Things are on the move regarding the Fed…
February 14, 2023
So, the inflation rate gets to the high 2% or low 3% range by the release of the June report in July, then the base effect turns positive and inflation drifts up the rest of the year. To repeat, Powell could not be more clear, he is not raising the target rate above 2%. So the Fed keeps hiking beyond 5.25% to get to "sufficiently restrictive."
Newsclips
Inflation Watch – The Critical Five-Month Window for Lower Inflation
February 14, 2023
Month-over-month CPI was deflationary for the first time since May 2020. The year-over-year numbers are heading in the right direction and will likely continue to do so for the next several months. Come July, this dynamic could possibly change.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 14, 2023
Today's topics include inflation might be coming back, Biden taps Brainard for top advisor role, the losing middle class, the scary future of NYC offices, can the Fed pull it off?, agreeing on a bear market rally, looking at the housing market, the car market, and Haley throws her hat in the ring
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Cartoons
February 14, 2023
Newsclips
Q4 Earnings Update: The Earnings Rebound Begins
February 13, 2023
With a focus on the Fed tightening cycle, peaking inflation, and a 2023 recession, S&P 500 earnings have declined to reflect expected economic pain ahead. Yet, economists and analysts are unsure how far earnings will fall. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2022 earnings might give us a clearer picture.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 13, 2023
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's inflation release, the odds of recession, the BoJ's next leader, U.S. equities vs. international equities, checking in on QT's progress, millionaire renters, and stablecoin regulation