Today's topics include QT implications from the debt ceiling, some perspective on all the tech layoffs, the odds of recession, cash is king once again, the Fed's footprint in the MBS market, falling profit margins, and yesterday's NYSE glitch
Today's topics include the case for a Fed pause?, the Fed's reverse repo facility provides a QT cushion, big banks' paltry savings rates, stagflation concerns, crack spreads on the rise again, Russian crude oil, active vs. passive investing, accounting's effect on bank earnings, and the auto industry's old guard vs. the new guard
With a focus on the Fed tightening cycle, peaking inflation, and a 2023 recession, S&P 500 earnings have declined to reflect the economic pain ahead. Yet, economists and analysts are unsure how far earnings will fall. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2022 earnings might give us a clearer picture.
Today's topics include can inflation fall fast enough for a pivot?, talkin' recession, the Fed vs. the markets, a rare win for active managers, wage growth demographics, replacing Russian gas, a note of caution from the BoE on life insurers, firms see weaker labor market, and gauging commodity bullishness
Today's topics include putting a timeline on "extraordinary measures", projecting the Fed's path, is a 2% inflation target still appropriate?, not all gas prices are the same, the Fed's reverse repo facility, homebuilders signal pause, venture capital sitting on cash hoard, and Chinese property sector dragging economy
Prior to 2009, primary dealers typically bought 60%-70% of any given 10-year note auction. Now they are typically taking down closer to 18% of an auction.
Between April 2021 and May 2022 U.S. inflation was the highest in the developed world thanks to massive stimulus. Thanks to the aggressive stance taken by the Federal Reserve, U.S. inflation is now falling faster than inflation in many other countries.
At one point in time Tesla was worth more than all other auto companies combined. Their fall over the past fourteen months puts them closer to Toyota's market cap.