Today's topics include visualizing the current market rally, the 'no pivot' crowd gets larger, the perpetually strong consumer, good news might be good news again, the need for hawkishness, channeling Volcker, falling housing prices, where is the BoE headed?, and a reheating U.S. economy would spell trouble
While the Fed expects to continue its fight against inflation, the consensus expects the economy to soften enough that the Fed will be forced to pivot.
Despite a massive discrepancy in returns since QE began in 2009, bond funds have seen much larger inflows than stock funds.
Today's topics include pandemic inflation might have a second chapter, what will the Fed decide?, revaluation, central banks become gold bugs, U.S. consumers hitting their limits, why the VIX has not been useful, more bad bond bets, IMF see's growth on the rebound, Eurozone growth, and adding capacity in shipping
A replay of our February 2, 2023 conference call.
The Fed sees more work to be done on the battle against inflation and is likely to push back on the easing of financial conditions. But how? They are almost done hiking.
With a focus on the Fed tightening cycle, peaking inflation, and a 2023 recession, S&P 500 earnings have declined to reflect expected economic pain ahead. Yet, economists and analysts are unsure how far earnings will fall. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2022 earnings might give us a clearer picture.
Today's topics include Timiraos on the Fed's path in 2023, volatile times, pension funds enjoying higher rates, demographic & deglobalization headwinds, consumer credit deteriorates, lower productivity, a falling dollar helps tech stocks, trimming the fat from big tech, and Grayscale's massive discount
Today's topics include hard vs. soft data, dollar reversal, the decline in temp jobs, the labor force participation rate, could the Treasury's quarterly funding report give clues on debt ceiling?, meme stocks benefit since frenzy, digging into 0DTE options, Gautam Adani's bad week, and thinking about CBDCs