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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 24, 2023
Today's topics include food prices, why US investors should focus on more than the Fed, retirement account balances show big drop, work from home hasn't gone away, tracking outflows, looking at the labor market, understanding base effects, on distressed debt, Fed's path & munis, and dollar pain trade
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Cartoons
February 24, 2023
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 23, 2023
Today's topics include discussing the FOMC minutes, supply inflation vs. demand inflation, housing's decline, the cost of servicing debt, uncertainty in 2023, natural gas prices, a mortgage carry trade, and filling the Fed vice chair seat
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Cartoons
February 23, 2023
Newsclips
Will the Bank of Japan End Yield Curve Control?
February 22, 2023
10-year Japanese government bond yields are pushing against their 0.50% yield curve control ceiling again. Despite a 30-year high in inflation and rising wages, the Bank of Japan remains in a decades-long fight against deflation. Something has to give, the inflation data or yield curve control.
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Australia’s End of Yield Curve Control
February 22, 2023
Australia ended its yield curve control in 2021. The unwind serves as a warning for Japan and anyone else that wants to consider fighting economic or market forces.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 22, 2023
Today's topics include the pivot comes & goes, a bear market rally?, cyclical vs. acyclical inflation, qe as hotel california, inflation-adjusted wages across the globe, the cost of higher rates, and today's crypto FUD
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Cartoons
February 22, 2023
Conference Calls
A Big Change in Two Weeks
February 21, 2023
A replay of our Febraury 23, 2023 conference call.
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A Big Change in Two Weeks
February 21, 2023
Between the strong payroll report on February 2, the higher-than-expected inflation report on February 14, and the recent rise in used car prices, markets have repriced their expectations for Fed hikes significantly over the last two weeks. They now expected the Fed to hike above 5.25%, maybe as high as 6% by fall.
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Q4 Earnings Update: Beat Rate Indicates Earnings Disappointment
February 21, 2023
With a focus on the Fed tightening cycle, peaking inflation, and a 2023 recession, S&P 500 earnings have declined to reflect the expected economic pain ahead. Yet, economists and analysts are unsure how earnings will fare. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2022 earnings might give us a clearer picture.