Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Recap
March 3, 2023
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 2, 2023
Today's topics include the Fed vs. the markets, measuring inflation, owning equities, how the BoJ makes yield curve control work, one year of Fed hikes, FOMO rally, historical spreads indicate 4.5% 10-year yields, China, upside down car loans, Silvergate, politics & the Fed, and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee under fire.
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Cartoons
March 2, 2023
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What the Consensus Continues to Miss
March 1, 2023
The latest updates to the consensus economic view are more of the same. A recession is coming, unemployment will soar, and inflation will return to 2%. This outlook has been wrong for over a year. With all the forecasting errors in the same direction, what are economists missing?
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Total Return Review – Bonds Give It All Back
March 1, 2023
Easy come, easy go. While bonds got off to a fast start in January, February's returns were almost the mirror opposite from a total return standpoint. Over a longer timeframe, this remains one of the worst drawdowns the bond market has experienced.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 1, 2023
Today's topics include all eyes on wages, Chinese economy shows signs of life?, Fed credibility, U.S. labor market, housing, risk aversion among the risk takers, how strong can the consumer stay?, a new face at the Chicago Fed, and Binance seeing major outflows
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Cartoons
March 1, 2023
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Monthly Fund Flows – Trader Flows vs. Allocator Flows
February 28, 2023
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 28, 2023
Today's topics include Dudley on money printing, short bets adding up, easy returns are gone, commodity futures as a hedge, Russia's efforts to ditch the dollar, Eurozone still battling higher inflation, the SPAC bust, value & buybacks, falling rents, and risky loans still tied to LIBOR
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Cartoons
February 28, 2023
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Q4 Earnings Update: Earnings Rebound Continues To Disappoint
February 27, 2023
As the Q4 2022 reporting season winds down, earnings have been a disappointment. The beat rate is less than expected and the reporting "bounce" is among the smallest ever seen.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 27, 2023
Today's topics include the odds of a soft landing, updating the odds of rate hikes, El-Erian calls for Congress to join the fight against inflation, anecdotal signs of labor market improvement, a bear market rally?, some bearish twitter charts, certain supply chain costs remain elevated, and past & present bond market returns