Today's topics include the rise in yields, the return of the bond vigilante?, breaking down the stock market's slowdown, fixed income fund flows, betting on big tech, revisions to GDI account for Fed remittances and supply & demand in the jobs market
After last year's horrible returns, the market is not showing signs of a mean reversion.
Today's topics include calling a US recession, expecting a crash in office properties, rising rates, are financial advisors losing luster with higher rates?, pandemic induced "experience" spending still driving consumers, inflation down but essentials still up, bankruptcies, and trading volatility
Over 96% of all money in the Fed's reverse repo facility belongs to money market funds. T-bills have become a competitive alternative, however.
Because the neutral rate is a bit of a guessing game, the Fed often hikes until something breaks. This is typically followed by a fast series of rate cuts.
The median price of a house is the most basic measure of the housing market. The median sale price per square foot (red) was $226 in August, down from its April 2022 peak of $233.
For the last few decades we have been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. However, a 40-year high in inflation prompted the Fed to tighten monetary policy at a fast pace. Higher rates mean the cost of servicing U.S. debt will follow higher.
Some detail on immigration encounters in the U.S.
U.S. News & World Report recently released its latest rankings of colleges across the U.S.
A long-term look at gold prices