Today's topics include all in on tech rally, calls for recession are fading, stock bond divergence, more on commerical real estate struggles, watching liquidity in Europe, who knew saving harms wealth?, new hedge fund rules deem them "systemically important", and Bitcoin tops $50k again
High yields provide the primary competition to expected returns for stocks. Even though rate cut expectations are being removed from market pricing, yields have held their recent range. Stocks will keep going up until this range is broken.
We are over halfway through the Q4 2023 earnings season. Earnings expectations were declining into reporting season but given strong beats, quarterly growth expectations have risen.
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, the Fed remains patient on rate cuts, in search of neutral, businesses see Fed as too restrictive, stock valuations, housing's supply problem, commercial real estate, and AI & productivity
New one from @psarofagis that says it all pic.twitter.com/JR4IAS8XPj — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 7, 2024
Today's topics include banks kick rate cuts further down the road, canary in the coal mine?, David Zervos focuses on the Fed put rather than rate cuts, nothing to see in CPI's annual revisions, active vs. passive, dividend investing, equity fund outflows, NYCB & the banking industry, and China's stock market
Today's topics include predicting the future is tough, monetary policy's long & variable lags, the Fed's balance sheet, the Fed & politics, the no landing scenario, employers regaining power?, ECB & BoE monetary policy, another sign negative rates are coming to an end in Japan, and Chinese deflation
Today's topics include talking markets, the last mile in the battle against inflation, wages & spending, soft landing hopes take a hit, where is neutral?, Pimco sees a March hike from BoJ, long-short hedge funds struggle to beat the index, and China's latest moves to halt the stock market's decline.