Today's topics include Alan Blinder declares mission accomplished on soft landing, the hard landing crowd is not deterred, LEI fell again in January, food costs as a percentage of income, the return of defined benefit plans?, Niikkei closing in on first new all-time high in 34 years, investors scooping up farmland, and China coming after quant traders
Stickier-than-expected inflation has put the Federal Reserve in a pickle: cut rates sooner and risk reaccelerating inflation or keep rates higher for longer, risking a black swan event that negatively impacts the economy. How did we get here? The consumer's newfound willingness to spend more than ever before.
We are closing in on the end of Q4 2023 earnings season. Earnings expectations were declining into reporting season but given strong beats, quarterly growth expectations have risen.
Today's topics include the soft landing vs. no landing debate, Dudley & Summers on the Fed's next move, beating a bond benchmark, Timiraos warns January PCE might come in hot, delinquent loans on the rise, productivity gains, China cuts mortgage lending rate, money market assets continue to grow, the shipping industry's problems continue, and Jim discusses Bitcoin & spot ETFs
A replay of our February 21, 2024 conference call.
Today's topics include conference call/webinar next Wednesday, Bostic not seeing rate cuts anytime soon, bank runs now happen at a much faster speed, Nvidia mania, price discovery in a passive world, stock splits are an endangered species, more on government finances, mortgage rates on the rise again, and betting on cocoa futures
Household debt in the U.S. stood at $17.50 trillion in the fourth quarter.
Credit utilization remains historically low, but is on the rise.
People under 30 and over 70 hold a relatively small amount of debt compared to other age groups.