Today's topics include Fed caught in 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' moment, curve trades, US debt & deficit, justifying 'higher for longer', muni bond funds are feeling higher rates, thoughts on high rates from the BoE, commodities & war, and NYC rents finally falling
Today's topics include Timiraos semi-officially calls off rate hikes for next few meetings?, banking net income, the Fed's summary of economic projections as a policy tool, in search of the neutral rate, treasury supply vs. term premia, rising interest rates post risk for unprofitable firms, and bank writeoffs
A replay of our October 12, 2023 conference call.
Q3 2023 earnings season starts this week. S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to decline further in Q3, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of negative earnings. All eyes are on the financial sector to start to gauge the impact of higher rates.
Today's topics include the worst U.S. bond rout on record, higher for longer, another look at China's exposure to the dollar, the IMF's biannual global stability report, small caps vs. large caps, is forward guidance dead?, the Fed's reverse repo facility, and quantifying the stock market's decline
This morning's big payrolls number pushed up the odds of another Fed hike slightly, but traders remain non-committal.
Today's topics include the bond market in focus, Grantham continues to beat the bubble drum, visualizing 2023 worker strikes, looking at bank stocks, debt issuance, American labor market, and is anyone studying accounting anymore?
Non-financial corporations are getting a bigger benefit from higher interest income than the drag from higher interest expenses. Consequently, their financial position is improving. This may be why higher rates are not hurting the economy.