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Has Inflation’s “Last Mile” Already Been Walked?
February 5, 2024
A replay of our February 8, 2024 conference call.
Newsclips
Q4 Earnings Update: Growth Outpacing Expectations
February 5, 2024
We are nearly halfway through Q4 2023 earnings season. Earnings expectations were declining into reporting season but given strong beats, quarterly growth expectations have risen.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 5, 2024
Today's topics include Powell's 60 Minutes interview, Fed officials weigh in on rate cuts, the OECD weighs in on rate cuts, the last mile in the battle against inflation, big swings in yields, questioning Shiller's Cape valuation measure, the Mag Seven's earnings, and the BoJ ready to say goodbye to negative rates?
Newsclips
Cartoons
February 5, 2024
Newsclips
Employment in Pictures – Big Beat Hurts Case for March Rate Cut
February 2, 2024
Payrolls beat even the highest estimate in Bloomberg's survey of economists. Revisions to past months were also the highest in a couple years. As a result, traders now see a March rate cut as unlikely.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 2, 2024
Today's topics include what's happening in commercial real estate?, El-Erian says Fed has a messaging problem, money market funds cross the $6t mark, deciphering what's ahead for markets, dot-com era comparison getting stronger, regional bank concerns, finding solutions to Red Sea shipping issues, bond market drawdown, and AI & market efficiency.
Newsclips
Cartoons
February 2, 2024
Charts of the Week
Dividend Yields Can No Longer Compete With Treasuries
February 2, 2024
Through much of the QE era, dividend yields outpaced T-bill yields. This has not been true over the last year and a half, however.
Charts of the Week
The Euro Turns 25
February 2, 2024
The euro turned 25 on January 1. Where does it now stand in terms of a global currency?
Charts of the Week
The Government’s Rising Debt Burden
February 2, 2024
For the last few decades we have been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. However, a 40-year high in inflation prompted the Fed to tighten monetary policy at a fast pace. Higher rates mean the cost of servicing U.S. debt will follow higher.
Charts of the Week
How Have Cathie Wood’s ARK Funds Done Recently?
February 2, 2024
We have argued in the past that Cathie Wood and the ARK ETFs, headlined by ARK Innovation (ARKK), were arguably the most important manager/complex on Wall Street. After their outstanding performance in 2020, these funds have drastically underperformed.