Over the last generation, lower tax and interest rates were a big tailwind for the stock market. These appear to be ending. For stocks to continue on their trend of the last 30 years, they would have to trade at all-time high valuations. This won't be easy to achieve.
The San Francisco Fed recently published data going back as far as 1970 delineating the difference between demand-driven inflation and supply-driven inflation.
So long as shipping problems persist in the Middle East and Panama, the potential for elevated goods inflation remains.
The first spot bitcoin ETFs started trading on January 11. They quickly gained traction and are seeing inflows on par with some of the largest ETFs in the U.S.
Several liquidity charts worth watching as the Fed's reverse repo facility continues to be drained
Updating the changes in central banks' balance sheets
A long-term look at the S&P 500's real earnings yield
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
While the majority of money market fund assets remain in government funds, the retail crowd has started reaching for yield once again in prime funds.
Today's topics include Labor Department OER confusion, focus on RRP grows as it shrinks, avoiding government shutdown, top heavy global markets, Fedspeak, does CRE pose systemic risk?, tech companies raise cash, synthetic risk transfers in Europe, and more on the effects of Bitcoin ETFs
Synchronized global growth was an assumed in the previous cycle. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States has diverged from other developed economies in more than one way. This divergence could be the reason so many have been so wrong about the U.S. economy.