Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Fed’s Evans: Delay Fed Rate Hike Until First Half of 2016 Raising short-term interest rates off currently near zero levels this year would be a mistake, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Wednesday. “We should be patient in raising interest rates,” Mr. Evans said. “I think… Continue reading Timing The First Rate Hike, Depends Who You Listen To
The New York Times – The Fed Knew the Economy Was a Disaster in 2009. Here’s What They Talked About Instead. The winter of 2009 was the worst, scariest time for the American economy in modern memory. Employers were slashing jobs at a frenetic pace; another major bank failure seemed to lurk around every corner;… Continue reading The FOMC Transcripts
The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: Negative Interest Rates Yield Positive Results—So Far Interest rates can’t go below zero—or so says a longstanding rule of economics. Savers would sooner hold cash, goes the logic, than lose money leaving it in the bank. Economists call this presumed floor the “zero bound.” It’s why many central… Continue reading Negative Rates
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Buybacks May Lift S&P 500 Earnings Growth in the First Half Share buybacks have been a key source of stock gains and earning growth, and they look set to continue, analyst Ed Yardeni of the eponymous Yardeni Research says, for the simple reason that it makes economic sense. The trend could… Continue reading Stock Buybacks’ Effect On Earnings
EIA.gov – U.S. crude oil storage capacity utilization now up to 60% Crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 20 show that total utilization of crude oil storage capacity in the United States stands at approximately 60%, compared with 48% at the same time last year. Most U.S. crude oil stocks are held… Continue reading The Capacity To Store Crude Oil
Bloomberg.com – Gary Shilling: Look Out Below, Copper’s Falling The commodity price boom that began after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 has turned to bust. Copper prices are down 41 percent from their 2011 peak and probably have a lot further to go. So why are copper producers ignoring all the obvious… Continue reading Dr. Copper
Bloomberg.com – Mohamed El-Erian: Where Oil Prices Go From Here The shock to oil prices reflected what economists would characterize as unusually unfavorable movements both on and among supply and demand curves. These developments in combination caught many off guard. Now, however, the sharply lower oil prices are inducing enormous supply destruction that has yet… Continue reading El-Erian On Oil Prices
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Here’s the Good News for Stock Pickers The bad news is that the stock market is pricey. The good news is that there are still bargains to be had for investors willing to look. More on the bad news first. According to data crunched by research outfit Axioma, the Russell 1000… Continue reading The Art Of Stock Picking
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China Lowers Growth Target to About 7% China lowered its economic growth forecast to about 7% for 2015 at the opening of the country’s biggest political event of the year, ushering in what leaders have dubbed a “new normal” of slower growth in the… Continue reading China’s New Normal?
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Washington Strips New York Fed’s Power The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, once the most feared banking regulator on Wall Street, has lost power in a behind-the-scenes reorganization at the nation’s central bank. The Fed’s center of regulatory authority is now a little-known committee run by Fed… Continue reading The New York Fed Loses Regulatory Power
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Earnings Beat Rate Earnings Expectations Revenue Beat Rate Revenue Expectations Company Guidance Fed Hikes & The Chicago Fed National Activity Index An Alternative View About The Fed Funds Rate An Alternative View About The Fed Funds Rate – 2 Negative Bond Yields Auto Sales Dip, Consistent… Continue reading Charts of the Week