<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index and Signalling Rate Hikes We have previously pointed to the Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index’s (CFNAI) uncanny ability to help mark Fed Funds rate hikes. On average, crosses above +0.3 by this common factor model have fallen within a month of the… Continue reading Fed Hikes & The Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Reuters.com – Sluggish February U.S. car sales blamed on blustery weather For the second year in a row, ferocious winter weather slowed U.S. vehicle sales in February, causing the major automakers to miss analysts’ bullish projections. Six of the top seven manufacturers on Tuesday reported year-to-year sales increases in February, but all fell short of… Continue reading Auto Sales Dip, Consistent With Other Measures
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Eurozone Retail Sales Surge Retail Sales in the Eurozone Rose for the Fourth Straight Month in January Retail sales in the eurozone rose for the fourth straight month in January and at the fastest rate in more than nine years, a fresh sign that… Continue reading A Rebound In Europe?
The Wall Street Journal – Euro Nears 11-Year Low Against Dollar The euro teetered on the edge of an 11-year low against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, on the eve of a key meeting at which the European Central Bank is expected to shed more light on how it will execute the bumper bond-buying program it… Continue reading The Euro Continues To Fall
The Financial Times – Why ECB risks running out of ammunition Constraints lie in 25% issue and 33% issuer limits on bond purchases The European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme announced in January has been well received by financial markets. Its size (€60bn a month) and open-endedness have positively surprised. The fact that 80 per… Continue reading Will The ECB Find Enough Bonds To Buy?
The Wall Street Journal – Bracing for Bond Volatility as Rates Set to Rise With higher interest rates looming, wealth managers are advising clients to brace for increased volatility and to stick with long- and short-term bonds. “The middle part of the yield curve—whether Treasurys or corporates or any other sector–will underperform,” says Christopher Gunster,… Continue reading More Bond Hate
Bloomberg.com – American Companies Are in Love With Themselves Corporate America’s love affair with itself grows more passionate by the month. Stock buybacks, which along with dividends eat up sums of money equal to almost all the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s earnings, vaulted to a record in February, with chief executive officers announcing $104.3… Continue reading U.S. Companies Are Hoarding More Cash Overseas And Buying Back More Stock
<Click on graphic for larger image> Atlanta Federal Reserve – Latest Forecast, Q1 2015 GDP The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 2, down from 1.7 percent on February 26. The nowcasts for first-quarter real residential and nonresidential structures… Continue reading Tracking Q1 2015 GDP
Bloomberg.com – El-Erian Warns of QE Market Distortion as Italy’s Bonds Advance Italy’s government bonds advanced for the first time in three days as Allianz SE chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian said the European Central Bank’s planned debt-buying program is causing market distortions. The yield premium investors demand to hold Italian 10-year securities over equivalent… Continue reading QE Market Distortion
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Traders Brace for End of Quiet After VIX’s Biggest Drop: Options Traders in one of the most popular exchange-traded notes tracking volatility are convinced the calm in U.S. stocks won’t last. Investors added $514 million in February to the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN,… Continue reading The VIX Remains Low…For Now
The Wall Street Journal – Yellen Says Effective Supervision of Big Banks One of Fed’s Top Priorities Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen raised concerns about the state of Wall Street’s culture and ethics on Tuesday, echoing similar comments from other regulatory officials and increasing pressure on the biggest U.S. banks to improve. “It is unfortunate… Continue reading Yellen Concerned About Wall Street’s Culture And Ethics