Comment Yesterday Jim was on CNBC talking about the ECB QE announcement. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. The Financial Times – With perfect timing, ECB’s Draghi calls end to eurozone crisis Mario Draghi’s timing looks impeccable. Only six weeks after pushing through… Continue reading Discussing The ECB QE Announcement
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US corporate profits set for second straight quarterly fall Profits for US companies are expected to decline over two consecutive quarters for the first time in six years as analysts predict lower energy prices and a stronger dollar will… Continue reading Earnings Estimates
Barron’s – The Stock Market’s Best Friend: The Corporate Bond Market Companies rush to borrow at record-low yields to fund buybacks and mega-M&A. Who needs growth? Where would the stock market be without the bond market, its best friend forever? If there were any doubt about what the credit market has meant to equities, it… Continue reading Corporate Bonds And The Stock Market
Reuters.com – Fed should not be too patient on rate hikes, Williams says Federal Reserve policymakers should not wait too long to raise interest rates, a top U.S. central banker said on Thursday, because doing so could mean “drastically” overshooting on inflation and forcing the Fed to hike rates dramatically. “I think that by mid-year… Continue reading Timing The First Rate Hike
The Economist – Inflation in Japan: The signal and the noise The Bank of Japan is still far from its inflation target, but that may matter less If the BoJ does end up easing further, it will need to handle internal opposition. In October dissent on its policy board about the merits of monetary easing… Continue reading Inflation In Japan
Bloomberg View – Inside the Currency Wars Almost all the world’s currencies are dropping against the U.S. dollar. The decline is being driven mostly by governments and central banks bent on cheapening their currencies to gain an advantage in global trade and boost their weak economies. Since December, 22 major foreign currencies have declined an… Continue reading Currency Wars
The Wall Street Journal – The Fed’s Aim Needs Work More than six years into the era of near-zero rates, the strength of the U.S. labor market is approaching the threshold beyond which it will, in theory, start stoking inflationary pressures. Economists call that point “Nairu,” or the “nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment.” Based on… Continue reading The Federal Reserve’s Unemployment Forecasts
The Financial Times – Fed tests point to $500bn risk for banks The biggest US banks would suffer combined losses of almost $500bn in the event of a financial crisis, according to stress tests carried out by the Federal Reserve, which rules next week on how much capital banks can return to shareholders. Morgan Stanley,… Continue reading Stress Tests
The Economist – Buttonwood: The curse of the top dog Apple’s low price-earnings ratio reflects understandable skepticism There seems to be an innate tendency for market giants to underperform (see chart). Between 1983 and 2005, the title of largest company in the S&P 500 switched between IBM, Exxon Mobil, GE and Microsoft. In the ten… Continue reading The Curse Of Being The Largest Company
<Click on chart for larger image> Marketplace – The Fed’s 2009 transcripts show 299 ‘instances of laughter’ The Federal Reserve released the transcripts of its 2009 meetings and conference calls today — all 1,648 pages of ’em. A quick word search this morning revealed the following: In those pages, there are 237 mentions of the… Continue reading FOMC Laughter, Bernanke Is More Fun Than Greenspan
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MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Janet Yellen, Forecasting Ace Steering central bank policy depends more than anything on assessing where the economy is heading. Yet, central bankers, surprisingly, are seldom picked for their forecasting acumen. More often they are former public servants, bankers or academics. Then there is Janet Yellen. Her forecasts as a Fed official… Continue reading Yellen’s Forecasting Record