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The Fed Will Drop “Patient” Next Week But The First Hike Could Still Come In 2016
March 9, 2015
Tim Duy’s Fed Watch – “Patient” is History The February employment report almost certainly means the Fed will no longer describe its policy intentions as “patient” at the conclusion of the March FOMC meeting. And it also keep a June rate hike in play. But for June to move from “in play” to “it’s going… Continue reading The Fed Will Drop “Patient” Next Week But The First Hike Could Still Come In 2016
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More On The Fed Funds Futures And Fed Dots Diverging
March 9, 2015
NewsMax – Data Bring More Focus on Timing of US Rate Hike U.S. stock investors may be bracing for further signs next week that the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates sooner rather than later, with retail sales expected to rebound after two straight months of declines. A pickup in retail sales could show consumers… Continue reading More On The Fed Funds Futures And Fed Dots Diverging
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Is The Payroll Report Deviating From Other Economic Releases?
March 9, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDP Now The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 6, unchanged from its March 2 reading. The nowcast for the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.5… Continue reading Is The Payroll Report Deviating From Other Economic Releases?
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An Earnings Update
March 9, 2015
Factset – Earnings Insight for March 6, 2015 At the company level, Apple was the largest contributor to earnings growth for both the Information Technology sector and the S&P 500 as a whole. The company reported actual EPS of $3.06 for Q4 2014, compared to year-ago EPS of $2.07 in Q4 2013. If this company… Continue reading An Earnings Update
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More On Crude Oil’s Decline Being About A Fall In Demand
March 9, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Oil Glut Sparks Latest Dilemma: Where to Put It All In a world awash in crude, oil producers and traders are facing a billion-barrel conundrum: where to put it all. U.S. crude-oil supplies are at their highest level in more than 80 years, according to data from the Energy Information… Continue reading More On Crude Oil’s Decline Being About A Fall In Demand
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The Taylor Rule
March 9, 2015
Bloomberg.com – The Fed Needs Humans The Fed’s monetary policy has long been set by the Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of the governors of the Federal Reserve Board, the president of the New York Fed and four regional Fed presidents on a rotating basis. Now, some legislators led by Jeb Hensarling, chairman of… Continue reading The Taylor Rule
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The Euro’s Slide Continues
March 9, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – ECB Buying Starts New Era for Bonds, Euro The arrival of the European Central Bank’s huge bond-buying plan Monday is forcing investors to prepare for the once unthinkable: paying to hold debt issued by the eurozone’s one-time trouble spots—even countries that have recently relied… Continue reading The Euro’s Slide Continues
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Problem Posed By Negative Yields
March 9, 2015
Bloomberg.com – ECB Said to Lack QE Accord on Losses From Negative-Yield Bonds As the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program gets under way, officials are still haggling over the details. When policy makers resolved last week to start purchases of 60 billion euros ($65 billion) a month in sovereign debt and other assets, they failed… Continue reading Problem Posed By Negative Yields
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Latest Equity Bull Market Has Now Lasted Six Years, Fourth Longest Ever
March 9, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Stock Bulls Run on Shaky Ground Maybe one reason market cycles are named after animals is that, like many real ones, they survive only a fraction of a human lifespan. The current upward trend in stocks turns six on Monday—middle-aged for dogs and positively elderly in bull-market years. If you… Continue reading Latest Equity Bull Market Has Now Lasted Six Years, Fourth Longest Ever
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Cartoons
March 9, 2015
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Employment In Pictures
March 6, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Robust Jobs Report Keeps Fed Moving Toward Midyear Rate Increases The robust job market keeps the Federal Reserve on track to alter its guidance on interest rates at its policy meeting this month—and debate whether to start raising short-term interest rates in June. With an increase of 295,000… Continue reading Employment In Pictures