CNBC – CNBC Fed Survey: Smaller rate hike seen, and later The April CNBC Fed Survey, released as the central bank begins a two-day meeting, shows 84 percent of respondents think 2015 will mark the Fed’s first rate hike in nine years. But the 38 respondents don’t see the Fed tightening policy until October, two… Continue reading CNBC Survey
<Click on chart for larger image> Brookings.edu – Ben Bernanke: The Taylor Rule: A benchmark for monetary policy Monetary Policy: Systematic, Not Automatic I’ve shown that US monetary policy since the early 1990s is pretty well described by a modified Taylor rule. Does that mean that the Fed should dispense with its elaborate deliberations and… Continue reading Bernanke Discusses The Taylor Rule
Contra Corner – Why Markets Are Manic—-The Fed Is Addicted To The ‘Easy Button’ During 2014 virtually 100% of S&P 500s reported profits of $1 trillion were disgorged as shareholder distributions to meet the clamoring demand from the casino and the sheer greed of top executives determined to pocket maximum possible stock option winnings before… Continue reading Addicted To The ‘Easy Button’
Bloomberg View – Mark Gilbert: Bankers Shouldn’t Run Central Banks The Japanese government did something weird last week, but weird in a good way that other governments should follow. It nominated (drumroll) a new member of its central bank (fanfare) who has actually (fireworks) worked in industry (huge applause, fade to sunset) — namely Yukitoshi… Continue reading Qualities Needed To Run A Central Bank
CNN Money – Boone Pickens to Texas: Don’t panic. Oil is going higher Some smart people have even warned Texas could tumble into a recession like it did in 1986 when oil prices plummeted. Just don’t tell that to 86-year-old Pickens, a veteran of countless boom-and-bust cycles in Texas “Don’t panic,” Pickens told CNNMoney on… Continue reading Your Daily Dose Of Being Bullish On Crude Oil
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Oil-Fund Outflows Bode Ill for Prices Money is pouring out of a popular investment tied to the oil market, a sign that a monthlong crude-price rally may be running out of gas. Exchange-traded funds that invest in U.S. oil futures, including the $3.1 billion… Continue reading A Record LONG in Crude Oil Speculation?
Bloomberg.com – Fed Seen Delaying Liftoff to September to Push Down Unemployment The Federal Reserve’s long-awaited liftoff on its benchmark interest rate won’t happen until September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, as officials try to spur inflation and hiring after the economy stumbled in the first quarter. Policy makers meeting on Tuesday and… Continue reading When Will The Fed Hike?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US inflation expectations scale highs for year Several widely-watched gauges of US inflation expectations have climbed to their highest levels this year, as oil prices regain their footing and some investors bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow in quelling any price pressures. The… Continue reading Inflation Expectations On The Rise
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – John Plender: Why Japan is vulnerable As the eurozone’s great experiment with negative interest rates continues apace, the dynamic of global capital flows has changed dramatically, responding to big shifts in the relationships between the world’s main currencies. While the US dollar is in much… Continue reading Is Japan A Risk?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Real-Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Could Machines Put Central Bankers Out of a Job? The fast-changing technological infrastructure of financial transactions, including nonbank finance, digital currencies, peer-to-peer lending and crowd-funding present a challenge to the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and other top central banks, says Randall Kroszner,… Continue reading The Rise Of The Machines, Central Bank Edition
<Click on chart for larger image> The New York Times – Uncertainty Over Impact of a Default by Greece When it comes to assessing the consequences of a messy Greek default on global markets, two views have vied for supremacy in the minds of investors. First, there was the chaos theory of imploding European banks… Continue reading Greece