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April 28, 2015
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Earnings Update
April 27, 2015
Factset – Earnings Insight For April 24, 2015 Largest Decline in Earnings (-2.8%) Since Q3 2009 ( -15.5%) The blended earnings decline for Q1 2015 is -2.8%. If this is the final earnings decline for the quart er, it will mark the first year-over-year decrease in earn ings since Q3 2012 (-1.0%), and the largest… Continue reading Earnings Update
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Consensus Opinion
April 27, 2015
I’m convinced that everything that’s important in investing is counterintuitive, and everything that’s obvious is wrong. -Charlie Munger, quoted in Howard Marks’s “Dare to be Great II,” April 8, 2014 (page 9) Comment The statement above might offer some of the best advice about investing we have read in several years. If you agree with… Continue reading Consensus Opinion
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We Know Nothing About Crude Oil Production
April 27, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Saudi Arabia’s Solution to Global Oil Glut: Pump Even More Crude Saudi Arabia has a response to the global surplus of oil: Raise output to near-record levels and then pump even more. The world’s biggest oil exporter, having abandoned last year its role of keeping global markets… Continue reading We Know Nothing About Crude Oil Production
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We Know Nothing About Chinese GDP
April 27, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China’s True Growth Is a Mystery; Economists Weigh the Clues When China released its tabulation of first-quarter growth earlier this month, the 7% figure—the worst in six years—stirred fears of a deepening slowdown. It also raised fresh doubt about the trustworthiness of China’s own… Continue reading We Know Nothing About Chinese GDP
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The Rising Popularity Of TIPS
April 27, 2015
Bloomberg.com – Here’s the Old Nemesis Starting to Spook Bond Traders Again Three months ago, bond traders were bracing for deflation in the U.S. Now, they’re starting to worry about inflation — and snapping up a record share of Treasuries that offer some protection. So what’s changed? Part of the answer, of course, has to… Continue reading The Rising Popularity Of TIPS
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Greece
April 27, 2015
Bloomberg.com – Greece’s Day of Reckoning Inches Closer as Payments Loom Greece is struggling to amass cash to pay its pensioners and employees this week, as the country and its creditors resume efforts to break the deadlock in bailout talks. Europe’s most-indebted state is counting on deposits of local governments, cities and other funds to… Continue reading Greece
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The Effect Of Share Buybacks On Stock Prices
April 27, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Share buybacks: who really benefits? This year, buybacks and dividends are widely expected to amount to some $1tn for the first time ever, with well over half of that coming just from share buybacks. Quantitative easing has given corporate America more of an incentive to… Continue reading The Effect Of Share Buybacks On Stock Prices
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Q1 GDP Estimates Continue To Head Lower
April 27, 2015
The New York Post – Wall Street braces for disappointing first-quarter GDP Hit by the combo punch of frugal consumers, declining business investment and plunging manufacturing, first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow a disappointing 1.3 percent at most. Results could come in far lower, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasting… Continue reading Q1 GDP Estimates Continue To Head Lower
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Discussing Secular Stagnation
April 27, 2015
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Jon Hilsenrath: MISSING FROM SECULAR STAGNATION DEBATE, THE ROLE OF ENORMOUS DEBT The world economy is playing out a familiar cycle of credit expansion, asset boom, and then sharp reversal. “As credit booms, asset prices rise, raising their value as collateral, thereby helping to expand credit and raise asset… Continue reading Discussing Secular Stagnation
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The Flash Crash Investigation
April 27, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – ‘Flash Crash’ Investigators Likely Missed Clues Investigators overlooked evidence given to them just hours after the 2010 “flash crash” that could have enabled them to uncover the strategies of Navinder Sarao, the trader now accused of helping cause the violent selloff in stocks that day, according to members of a… Continue reading The Flash Crash Investigation
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Pimco Agrees With Bill Gross
April 27, 2015
Bloomberg.com – Pimco’s Kiesel Sees Bubble in $3 Trillion of Negative-Yield Debt Forget high-yield bonds. The real froth in markets can be found in the swelling pool of negative-yielding government debt from Europe to Japan. That’s according to Mark Kiesel, chief investment officer for global credit at Pacific Investment Management Co., who’s increasingly wary of… Continue reading Pimco Agrees With Bill Gross