The Financial Times – Stock valuations are no help in timing trades How can we value the stock market, and how can we time our entrances to it and exits from it? And are these questions related? The questions are topical for two reasons. On valuation, a widely popularised measure (strongly advocated in this column),… Continue reading Using Stock Valuation As A Timing Tool
As the next chart shows, flows into long Treasury ETFs have slowed a bit in the past couple months, but speculators are still much longer than they were prior to the flash yield crash. <Click on chart for larger image> Finally, as the next chart shows, the large speculators in 2-year note futures (third… Continue reading An Update On Bond Market Sentiment
Bloomberg.com – Greece, Euro-Area Partners Target Deal by Sunday Greece and its euro-area partners are stepping up talks in a bid to break an impasse over bailout aid as early as next week, even as the country’s government sent conflicting signals over its willingness to agree on long-stalled reforms. With Greece facing a cash crunch… Continue reading Grexit
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – A Rare Win for Economic Forecasting: The Atlanta Fed Almost Nails Its First-Quarter Growth Estimate The U.S. economy’s sharp slowdown in the first three months of the year may have caught almost all Wall Street forecasters off guard. But it didn’t surprise the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The… Continue reading GDPNow
The Financial Times – Bernanke adds role as Pimco senior adviser to his jobs portfolio Ben Bernanke is taking a role as senior adviser to Pimco, adding a second asset management firm to his portfolio of post-Federal Reserve paymasters. The former Fed chair will advise Pimco’s investment committee on macroeconomic issues and monetary policy, and… Continue reading Bernanke To Advise Pimco
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Earnings And Revenue Expectations Company Guidance Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP Home Ownership Rate Drops To 25-Year Low A Record LONG In Crude Oil Speculation? We Know Nothing About Crude Oil Production Credit Spreads Gas Prices When Will The Fed Hike? Inflation Expectations On… Continue reading Charts of the Week
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. GDP Expands at 0.2% Pace in First Quarter The U.S. economy slowed sharply at the start of the year as businesses slashed investment, exports tumbled and consumers showed signs of caution, marking a return to the uneven growth that has been a hallmark of the nearly six-year economic expansion.… Continue reading Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
Real Time Economics – Jon Hilsenrath: HERE’S WHAT THE PROS ARE SAYING ABOUT THE FED AHEAD OF POLICY MEETING Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, expects the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates to remain unchanged, apart from removing the reference to the April meeting. That means no rate increases until the Fed is… Continue reading The FOMC Decision Is Today
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics – The Homeownership Rate Is Now the Lowest Since 1989, But There’s a Silver Lining The U.S. homeownership rate continued to decline in 2015, hitting its lowest level since 1989. But economists saw a silver lining in that number. The seasonally adjusted homeownership rate declined to… Continue reading Homeownership Rate Falls To A 25-Year Low
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Case-Shiller Home Price Index Climbs Modestly in February Home prices continued to rise modestly in February, according to a report released on Tuesday, a continued upward push in home values which underscores concerns that buyers’ incomes aren’t keeping pace. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index,… Continue reading Home Prices Rise Slightly
The Washington Post – Why you should be skeptical of the biggest excuse for the weak economy Even before the U.S. was set to release its first reading of U.S. economic growth Wednesday morning, analysts were already dismissing its significance. To be sure, the weather in some parts of the country between January and March… Continue reading Blaming Bad Weather For The Weak Economy